The Year in Review: 2023

These annual reviews are always interesting. This past year of charting, like most, saw some enormous successes as well as some lessons in humility.  More importantly, though, the markets’ behaviour in 2023 offers vital insight into the year ahead. Equities As we noted back on Jan 10, 2023 in A Look Ahead at 2023, the … continue reading →

PCE Gives Fed Room to Cut

PCE came in below expectations. Headline was -0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY. Core was +0.1% and 3.2% YoY.  This was the smallest rise since April 21, and offers the Fed additional room to consider cuts in 2024 should the trend continue.Futures added to modest gains after the print.  The key issue remains: whether the moderating … continue reading →

Finally, a Backtest

We finally saw the backtest we’ve been expecting as SPX fell a whopping 70 points (-1.47%), almost reaching its 10-day moving average and bleeding off its overbought condition. ES came within a few points of our Fibonacci backtest, also coming up just short of its 10-DMA.continued for members… … continue reading →

Update on the USDJPY: Dec 19, 2023

In a move that surprised no one, the BoJ left their monetary policy unchanged unhinged. The policy statement still reflects the looney tunes, magical thinking that has always epitomized their decisions: they’ll raise rates when inflation reaches 2% – even though inflation is well above 2% and has been for over a year. Annualizing the … continue reading →

John Williams: “Not so Fast”

If Jay Powell’s comments were intended to spur the market to new highs, NY Fed President John Williams’ were intended to slow the roll.  On CNBC this morning: “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now…we’re very focused on the question in front of us, which as chair Powell said… is, have we gotten … continue reading →