The past two days of inflation data make it abundantly clear that inflation’s slump is slumping. But, don’t take our word for it. Just ask the bond market, where the 10Y has soared from 3.6% to 4.5% in less than two months. Headline CPI, which had dipped as low as 2.44% in September, jumped to … continue reading →
Category Archives: Charts I’m Watching
Headline CPI rose 0.2% for the fourth straight month in October. Year-over-year, however, it increased by 2.6% versus 2.4% in September. This was in line our with expectations and increases the odds of the pause we’ve forecast for December’s meeting. Core CPI’s 3.3% increase (0.3% MoM) further reinforced the market’s concern regarding the inflationary effects … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly on the eve of another important CPI print. continued for members… … continue reading →
SPX reached our 6009 target (from August) two days ahead of schedule, leaving ES 6064 as the last remaining upside target in the vicinity. With ES reaching 6053 overnight, this rally is either due a pullback or a breakout. In short, it’s another moment of truth for equities. continued for members… … continue reading →
It was a typical Fed press conference, with Powell ducking and dancing around any substantive revelations, when someone asked whether the election would affect the Fed’s policy decisions. It was no surprise that Powell fell back on the usual 200-word “data dependence” answer that we’ve all heard before. Then someone asked the question that was … continue reading →
The macro outlook has certainly changed over the past two days. Will the FOMC ignore it or take it into account when issuing their interest rate decision later today? ES is within 11 points of our IH&S target at 5984. continued for members… … continue reading →
Following the shocking election results in the US, futures actually tagged our downside support at the 50-day moving average and, in a 2% surge, our next upside target. The spike has all the hallmarks of a pop and drop, however, as the 10Y has broken out. continued for members… … continue reading →
Since markets are essentially frozen as we enter the most consequential week of the year, we thought this would be an opportune time to review the big picture. As always, we began the year [see: A Look Ahead at 2024] with specific targets. SPX: “The most important chart pattern for SPX is the large Inverted … continue reading →
Nonfarm payrolls were undeniably affected by the hurricane and strikes in October. Nevertheless, the plunge from 223K to 12K – well below estimates of 125K – is likely to provide the FOMC with all the cover they need to cut rates again when they meet next week. Futures have rebounded, retaking the 50-day moving average. … continue reading →
Strong economic data continues to worry investors, many of whom had pinned their hopes on Fed rate cuts. Initial claims came in at 216K versus 232K expected. Personal income rose 0.3%, in line and an increase from 0.2% last month. Personal spending rose 0.5%, also in line and an increase from the prior 0.3%. Last, … continue reading →