FOMC Day: Nov 2, 2022

The market is essentially unchanged from yesterday, with VIX in a position to make or break this rally unless the FOMC delivers a significant surprise. We’ve seen this movie before: a sharp rally into a Fed meeting or CPI report that wipes out the put buyers and positions the market for a drop from a … continue reading →

No Pivot

September PCE held steady at 0.3% MoM and 6.2% YoY while personal spending came in hotter than expected. This should officially close the door on any speculation regarding a Fed pivot. Coming after disappointing earnings and guidance from the largest, most important corporations, one might expect at least a slight decline in the markets. One … continue reading →

Q3 GDP Beats Estimates

Q3 GDP came in at 2.6%, beating the 2.3% consensus and of course Q2’s -0.6%. While good news for the economy, it does little to advance the narrative that the Fed might be ready to pare future rate hikes. Nevertheless, VIX fell… …so futures rose slightly on the news.continued for members… … continue reading →

This Round to the Algos

Despite some of the market heavyweights taking big hits from earnings/outlooks (Microsoft MSFT, -7.72%, Alphabet GOOG, -7.86%, Texas Instruments TXN, -6.41%) futures are off less than 1%. Don’t look for a fundamental justification. This rally, like most this year, was built on VIX and currency manipulation. continued for members… … continue reading →