We’ve been keeping an eye on COMP lately, as it has often been a solid indicator of froth in the markets. It recently reached our next upside target of 15,667, continuing up to today’s high of 15,966. The gains are especially noteworthy, as just 5 weeks ago COMP completed a very bearish H&S Pattern that … continue reading →
No, not the market. We’re talking about VIX – the traffic cop that tells the algos which way to go. Yesterday, it went as close as it could to breaking down below a key channel bottom – this after a very visible breakdown of the rising white channel on Monday. What does it matter?It easily … continue reading →
It was a big gamble, but it paid off – at least so far. The Fed took a page from Ben Bernanke’s famous 2002 speech in which he said, “The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it … continue reading →
The market is pausing while the FOMC hashes out how much of a taper/rate increase they need to announce. Futures are generally flat, with factors increasingly pointing towards downside targets. How big a nosedive is VIX prepared to make?continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s easy enough to engineer a meltup in advance of a Fed meeting. We’ve seen it countless times. But, what about after a meeting, particularly one where an actual taper or rate hike is announced? The countdown has begun. Stay tuned. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off this morning on disappointing earnings/guidance from market leaders (AMZN, AAPL and SBUX) and a significant miss on Personal Income (-1.0% vs -0.3% consensus.) Meanwhile, the PCE deflator rose to a new 30-year high at 4.4% YoY (core: 3.6%.) More fuel for the stagflation fires… continued for members… … continue reading →
Q3 GDP disappointed, coming in at 2.0% versus 2.7% consensus and Q2’s 6.7%. Not to worry…bad news is good news, right? Not so fast. With inflation well above target, additional Fed stimulus is on the way out, no matter how much the economy sputters. According to the Atlanta Fed, that might be quite a lot. … continue reading →
Equity markets rarely fail to rally into the end of the year. But, there have been several noteworthy Q4 exceptions over the years, each of them marked by VIX’s bounce off well-established trend lines. Note that SPX’s yellow channel has been rising at a compouned 12.2% per year since the 2009 bottom – historically a … continue reading →
Keep a close eye on VIX, which has been humming “Should I Stay or Should I Go” for the past week. The algos are laser focused on this factor above all others, as it will determine whether or not stocks have additional upside potential in the near term. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up moderately this morning, with algos responding to the continuing meltup in oil and gas. continued for members… … continue reading →