Mortgage applications fell short, but retail sales beat and industrial production slumped. All in all, a mixed bag that supports the stagflation narrative. The algos aren’t happy. continued for members… … continue reading →
Category Archives: Charts I’m Watching
Futures are flat after stocks again failed to build on last week’s overdone rally. And, don’t look now, but SPX’s death cross finally occurred yesterday. continued for members… … continue reading →
In the face of confusing but potentially beneficial changes to Trump’s tariff policies, futures have continued melting up. No doubt, there is plenty of short covering. The other factor, of course, is the effect that a 15% crash in VIX is having on algos. continued for members… … continue reading →
Don’t look now, but DXY has almost fallen to our 98.976 target from last year. The culprits are numerous, led by the euro and yen which are both soaring relative to the greenback. The EURUSD has broken out and has nearly reached our 1.15 target. These moves represent a very serious development for US markets, … continue reading →
It was Mar 23, 2020. The COVID pandemic had scared the crap out of markets. The S&P 500 had dropped 35% in about a month and, to make things worse, a dreaded death cross was only 50 points away. Death crosses, where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day, are well known to investors … continue reading →
Futures were all over the map overnight as 104% tariffs were levied on China. China responded by raising their tariffs on US goods to 84%. The turmoil also roiled treasury markets, where rumors of China divesting itself of US treasuries resulted in a breakout in the 10Y and the 2s10s. Equities have hit both our … continue reading →
SPX nailed our next downside target yesterday… …, setting up a nice bounce in the after-hours. continued for members… … continue reading →
The disarray out of the Trump administration continues, with Navarro spewing a stream of consciousness word salad on CNBC this morning while Trump spent the weekend working on his golf game. ES is off another 3% this morning, but has been all over the map – even backtesting our 4859 target at the IH&S it … continue reading →
Futures are off another 3% after yesterday’s 4.50% debacle. ES has plunged through our 5301 target and is fast approaching our 5153 target. Although it’s a nonsense index, rumor has it that “certain people” follow the DJIA quite closely. This channel dating back to 2022 just broke down yesterday. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off nearly 4% in the wake of Trump’s announcement of very severe tariffs which nearly everyone outside his administration agrees are a huge mistake. It’s merely the latest unforced error that this brain trust has unleashed on the economy and the markets. ES has reached our 5501 target, with more to come. continued … continue reading →