In another demonstration that the market and the economy are two very different animals, Personal Income dropped 1.1% MoM and Personal Expenditures dropped 0.4% MoM.YoY, Spending fell 1.3% and Incomes rose 3.8% – but to a lower low. Naturally, futures yawned and are back above their SMA10. Needless to say, tossing out $600 stimulus checks … continue reading →
In our last regular update on BTC [see: Nov 17 Update], we noted that it had reached our Inverted Head and Shoulders target of 17,150 well ahead of schedule and was due to test the .886 Fib at 17,780. Note that the red IH&S target at 17,150 is only slightly below the blue .886 Fib … continue reading →
As virtually all of our models have been warning, stocks are taking a big hit this morning. The tension has been building, simply waiting for a catalyst. With OPEX/Quad-Witching in the rear view, the UK virus mutation certainly fits the bill. ES, off 128 points a few hours ago after coming within 6 points of … continue reading →
Almost four months ago [see: Aug 24, 2020 Update] we noted that the next overhead resistance once ES broke above its Feb 3397.50 highs was the 1.272 Fib extension at 3730.37. Seeing ES pop above its former highs means there is no specific overhead Fib resistance until the 1.272 extension at 3730.29 (SPX 3720.37.) I … continue reading →
DXY tagged our 89.88 target overnight, capping off a nice short that dates back to March 18 [see: Currencies to the Rescue.]With so many other instruments watching its every move, we’ll dig into whether the correction might have run its course and what it means for equities. continued for members… … continue reading →
Will Congress come up with an aid package? Unless they act now, millions of our neighbors are set to lose their unemployment benefits in the next two weeks. After the new year, they’ll also lose their eviction/foreclosure protection. “Merry Christmas” from our public servants. More like “good luck.” Meanwhile, the market continues its meltup in … continue reading →
Maybe Warren Buffett can get through to Congress. In a CNBC interview aired this morning: “It’s so important that small businesses, which have become collateral damage in a war that our country needed to fight, but we, in effect, voluntarily had an induced shut down of parts of the economy, and it hit many types … continue reading →
Even without a new vaccine approval this morning, futures have managed to gap back above their 10-DMA. It’s not an unusual occurrence for OPEX week. But, note that VIX also gave up 12.6% of its recent gains overnight to test important support at its 20-DMA. continued for members… … continue reading →
Though CPI came in hot yesterday (0.2% versus 0.1% consensus) it scarcely merited a mention in the financial press. In my opinion, this is a mistake. Inflation drives interest rates which, given that debt has topped $27 trillion and 136% of GDP, remains an extremely important consideration. Though the official data is fundamentally flawed, inflation … continue reading →
And, everything was going so well… The algos managed to bounce just before tagging the line in the sand yesterday. So far, so good. But the overnight crew wasn’t so lucky, as ES finally dropped below a trend line dating back to Nov 6. Is this the “something bigger” we’ve been waiting for, or were … continue reading →