The market rallied sharply off a small change in the FOMC comment which seemed to imply a more dovish course of action. But, Powell soon dispelled that notion – exactly as we suspected he would. “It’s very premature to think about or talk about pausing our rate hikes.” Things turned ugly from there. continued for … continue reading →
Category Archives: Charts I’m Watching
The market is essentially unchanged from yesterday, with VIX in a position to make or break this rally unless the FOMC delivers a significant surprise. We’ve seen this movie before: a sharp rally into a Fed meeting or CPI report that wipes out the put buyers and positions the market for a drop from a … continue reading →
In yet another reminder of their sway over the markets, the algos have brought stocks to the brink of a breakout by putting VIX at the brink of another breakdown. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off about 0.50% as we approach Wednesday’s FOMC decision and a slew of important economic data. continued for members… … continue reading →
September PCE held steady at 0.3% MoM and 6.2% YoY while personal spending came in hotter than expected. This should officially close the door on any speculation regarding a Fed pivot. Coming after disappointing earnings and guidance from the largest, most important corporations, one might expect at least a slight decline in the markets. One … continue reading →
Q3 GDP came in at 2.6%, beating the 2.3% consensus and of course Q2’s -0.6%. While good news for the economy, it does little to advance the narrative that the Fed might be ready to pare future rate hikes. Nevertheless, VIX fell… …so futures rose slightly on the news.continued for members… … continue reading →
Despite some of the market heavyweights taking big hits from earnings/outlooks (Microsoft MSFT, -7.72%, Alphabet GOOG, -7.86%, Texas Instruments TXN, -6.41%) futures are off less than 1%. Don’t look for a fundamental justification. This rally, like most this year, was built on VIX and currency manipulation. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off modestly in quiet trading as we approach the open. continued for members… … continue reading →
ES rallied 7.3% off the Oct 13 lows to tag our target at the white channel midline – also the 20% correction mark. This is the same target we added on Oct 14 [see: It Wasn’t Oversold] as it’s an important line in the sand. continued for members… … continue reading →
With over $2 trillion in equity options expiring today, is it any wonder that in the past hour the futures market went from this… …to this? continued for members… … continue reading →