A Big Squeeze

ES has given back yesterday’s gains after bumping into the top of the rising channel which has guided it since late March. A large sell off would be unusual for the days leading into a Fed decision, let alone OPEX and the end of Q2.But, then again, there’s nothing normal about the market these days … continue reading →

VIX Rules

VIX continues to rule the roost. Friday’s plunge below the 200-DMA was all the algos needed to justify breakouts in multiple indices. The rallies in USDJPY and oil were icing on the cake. At what point can we assume stocks will take a breather, or more? continued for members… … continue reading →

Another Yield Curve Warning for Stocks

Two steps forward…in order to accommodate a big step back. We’ve seen it countless times in the lead-up to Fed meetings, GDP reports and, lately, jobs data. With May unemployment expected to top 20% (it’s unofficially already there) after another 7.5 million joined the jobless ranks……the market’s caretakers put a 58-pt cushion into the market.  … continue reading →

Falling Into Place

The Dow finally reached its 200-day moving average yesterday, one of the targets that seemed important to the algos. Perhaps significantly, it managed the tag without AAPL and COMP reaching new highs – a nifty trick – and on the same day that ES and SPX tagged our IH&S targets from Apr 6. We also … continue reading →

What Resistance?

ES closed just above the 2.618 Fib extension at 3076.93 yesterday and proceeded to conduct the usual overnight meltup, aided by a nonsensical ADP jobs report. Consequently, it is closing in on the IH&S target of 3108 from a pattern completed way back on Apr 6. At the same time, COMP – which has struggled … continue reading →

Pop and Drop?

There’s a lot to unpack this morning, as several targets were tagged overnight.   USDJPY finally popped up to tag its 200-DMA……which enabled ES to come within 1.43 of our 3076.93 target – the 2.618 Fib extension of the drop between 2007-2009. I thought this was going to happen over the weekend, but better late then … continue reading →

Mind the Gap

In 2009, in the depths of the GFC with the S&P 500 tagging 666, about 11.9% of Americans lived in poverty.  In 2020, with the S&P 500 having recently reached 3393 after trillions in central bank intervention, the rate is estimated to be 12.4%, with projections of over 15% depending on how bad unemployment gets.Black … continue reading →

The Hits Keep Coming

It’s the last day of a short week packed with more important economic data — which the market has managed to ignore so far. Today might be a little different, as the spike in the savings rate and the collapse in consumption confirm a troubled road ahead for the strong consumer narrative.  Gee, could 25% … continue reading →

Update on Bitcoin: May 28, 2020

I’ve only posted about BTC once before, back on Mar 23 in response to a member request [see: FOMC Embraces MMT.]  The Dow was about to test its 2016 election day lows and, not coincidentally, the Fed had just unleashed QEinfinity. The post went as follows: Two major chart patterns jump out at me: first, … continue reading →