PPI: Lower Than Expected

In contrast to yesterday’s CPI print, PPI came in below estimates at 0.2% headline and core. Futures erased their sharp overnight losses which saw them nail our next downside target and now point to modest gains. A bounce here would be more convincing if SPX were to also reach its 50-day moving average. continued for … continue reading →

Inflation Heads Higher: Apr 10, 2024

March CPI came in at 0.4% MoM for both headline and core (versus 0.3% expectations for both), hotter than expected for the second month in a row.  YoY headline registered at 3.5% versus expectations of 3.4% and 3.2% in February and core came in at 3.8% (unchanged from February) versus expectations of 3.7%. As we … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 8, 2024

Futures are up modestly as traders look ahead to this week’s important data dumps: FOMC minutes and CPI on Wednesday, initial claims and PPI on Thursday, and Friday’s U of Michigan consumer sentiment. continued for members… … continue reading →

Another Blowout Jobs Report

NFP came in at 303K vs 200K estimates, a huge beat which, combined with a decline in the unemployment rate, argues against any near term rate cuts. ES is all over the map this morning, but has given up much of its overnight ramp and is approaching our next downside target. With CPI coming out … continue reading →

Update on Currencies: Apr 2, 2024

We’ve seen this movie before. For years, the yen carry trade has been a critical element of the equity price support toolbox. But, all good things must come to an end. When the yen gets too cheap, Japanese inflation becomes problematic as the cost of importing food and energy soars. Aside from exposing the ludicrousness … continue reading →

The Big Picture: Mar 25, 2024

Many bears have simply given up betting on a downside that, despite plentiful recession indicators, feels increasingly unlikely. Since the S&P 500 completed its Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern back in December, the index has piled on nearly 14% [see: A Look Ahead at 2024.] The many, many bulls point to a generally strong economy, … continue reading →

Breakdown/Breakout

In a repeat of the most effective algo move of the past 10+ years, VIX broke down following the Fed’s no-news rate decision and press conference yesterday. As always, this allowed equities to leapfrog an area of stubborn overhead resistance. continued for members… … continue reading →