CPI Ticks Higher

CPI came in slightly hotter than expected at 0.1% versus 0.0% expected and prior (annual 3.1% vs 3.1%.) Core was 4.0% (unchanged) but 0.3% monthly versus 0.2% prior and 0.0% expected.) Core goods actually fell 0.3% while much stickier services rose a blistering 0.5%. This is all a bit of a disappointment for the rate … continue reading →

VIX: “Don’t Worry About It”

Despite a much hotter than expected NFP print, VIX’s convenient collapse… …has once again convinced investors algos that there’s nothing to worry about. The 20-pt drop in futures following the print was erased within minutes. It’s all in keeping with our year-end forecast, which remains unchanged. continued for members… … continue reading →

Update on Oil and Gas: Dec 7, 2023

Algos popped in the past hour on a larger than expected increase in initial jobless claims with the more important NFP due out tomorrow. But, the more dramatic move has been in oil, with CL reaching our next downside target and RB well on its way to its own. continued for members… … continue reading →

Update on Gold & Silver: Dec 5, 2023

As noted yesterday, gold and silver reached our target ranges from mid-October.  GC came up slightly short of its target from Oct 18 [see: Mideast Worries Mount]… …before being aggressively hammered. Silver nailed its target very precisely before meeting a similar fate. We’re faced with the usual questions after targets are reached: Was that it? … continue reading →

PCE Just High Enough

Official core PCE came in at 3.5% YoY (0.2% MoM) which was high enough to knock fuutres off their overnight highs but not enough to drive VIX above its 10-day moving average. We pay a lot of attention to VIX as it’s perhaps the most important daily driver of algo behaviour. After poking up above … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Nov 29, 2023

Futures are up sharply in advance of the open after a $10 billion GM share repurchase announcement and a GDP revision that did nothing to dissuade algos from the notion that the Fed will soon be cutting rates VIX is plumbing new lows. The market is rapidly running out of room for a pullback/backtest of … continue reading →