We already had ample reason to disbelieve the official CPI data – considering what happens when someone reports economic data Trump doesn’t like. So, February’s 2.4% CPI with its laughable 0.5% YoY new vehicles data point (actually 3.4% per industry sources) was already meaningless. The Iran war has made it even more so: the -5.6% YoY gas prices cited in the CPI report would instead by +13.5% at today’s prices. Guess what this will do to even the perennially understated CPI?

Futures have been all over the map this morning as the algos are trying to come to grips with the growing disaster in the Middle East which is unlikely to be mitigated by SPR release gimmickry.

SPX still owes us a tag of its SMA200. So, any bounce between now and the end of Q1 shouldn’t last.

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I’m a little sore from overdoing my first extended hike following last week’s surgery. Then I think about my nephew Will, who is competing in his first Pierra Menta ski mountaineering race this week. Considered the most grueling such race in the world, it spans 4 days and involves over 30,000 feet of vertical gain in the French alps. Footage can be seen HERE. There’s an overview of the insanely difficult course at the 38:20 mark.