WTI reached our 74 target back on Nov 19, even overshooting it slightly before rebounding to backtest its 200-day moving average. All of this was as expected, as is the latest tumble. We sympathize with the fundamental analysts who can’t square these price movements with the very upsetting geopolitical unrest. But, oil/gas prices are some … continue reading →
The Fed will release minutes today, ostensibly providing some insight into their recent thinking. I tend not to get too excited about these, as they are even more carefully parsed that Powell’s remarks to ensure investors algos don’t panic and run for the exits. But, the Fed doesn’t really want a knee jerk meltup that … continue reading →
More of the same… continued for members… … continue reading →
Wash, rinse, repeat. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures have been pegged at the same breakout level for the past 48 hours now… …as WTI has now reached our 74.25 target from August. continued for members… … continue reading →
PPI tumbled to -0.5% in October (1.3% YoY), the biggest drop since pandemic era April 2020. Core PPI was unchanged MoM and rose 2.4% YoY. Commodity price weakness was the main culprit, with gasoline’s 15.3% plunge leading the way. The print isn’t all rainbows and unicorns. A slump in PPI could also be interpreted as … continue reading →
October CPI came in unchanged following a 0.4% increase in September. For the year, CPI dropped to 3.2% from 3.7% in September. Core came in at 4.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Futures soared on the print. As we have anticipated for the past several months, it was a sharp drop in gas prices which produced … continue reading →
This is one of the biggest weeks for economic data in quite some time. We get October CPI tomorrow, PPI and retail sales on Wednesday, initial claims on Thursday, and housing starts and permits on Friday. Of all these data, CPI looms largest for the markets. Recall that September core CPI came in at 4.1% … continue reading →
Futures have bounced back from yesterday’s disappointing outing, but are still off recent highs with some very consequential economic data coming next week. continued for members… … continue reading →
If you liked the last four sessions, you’ll love the way this one is shaping up. continued for members… … continue reading →