Higher oil prices, higher VIX, lower stock prices, and additional Trump rants that seem to preclude a speedy end to the war.

“I don’t have any concern about [higher oil prices]…”
“There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER…”
“I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodriguez] in Venezuela…”
“MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!)”

ES has almost reached our 6680 target, egged on by…

…oil prices that continue to break out…

…and rising vol.

As we’ve discussed many times, SPX’s RSI chart confirms what the Fibonacci ratios have told us: we’re nearing an important inflection point. A bounce at the SMA200 would be completely normal. A drop through it would point to potentially much lower prices.

The most likely path at this point is probably a bounce at the SMA200 into the end of March (end of Q1 meltup) followed by another drop to 6624 around April 24. But, it Trump et al don’t lay off with the warmongering, we could get there (and lower) much sooner.

Stay tuned…