Durable goods orders came in at -2.1% versus the +0 .5% that the establishment expected. This, along with the latest housing and employment figures, supports my belief that we never exited the initial recession — which is now about to get much, much worse. There may be pockets of positive news here and there, and … continue reading →
Category Archives: Charts I’m Watching
And, in recognition of the various nationalities who’ve checked in here lately… Bonne année, Sun nien fai lok, xin nian kuai le, gelukkig nieuwjaar, šťastný nový rok, yeni yılınız kutlu olsun, glückliches neues Jahr, Szczesliwego Nowego Roku, Stastny Novy Rok, un an nou fericit, Felice Anno Nuovo, Feliz año nuevo, С Новым Годом, nav … continue reading →
UPDATE: 11:25 AM PDT The market’s making it’s daily recovery attempt. The past two days, we’ve seen an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the previous day’s high. While the rally could run out of gas sooner, today’s 88.6% level is 1342.16. It would also mark the completion of a bearish crab pattern. UPDATE: 9:50 AM PDT … continue reading →
I’m going to continue to track the relationship between equities and the dollar. As discussed in several of our latest posts, there’s a real possibility that the normally inverse relationship will be positively correlated in at least the near-term. In other words, everything tanks. While the dollar has plenty of “issues,” I expect that a … continue reading →
Had to make a choice this morning — cash in a 35% two-day profit or go for the gold. BAC opened at 9.97, gapping down from Friday’s 10.13 close. The August 11 puts I bought last Thursday for .90 traded at 1.25. Tempting… But, I couldn’t ignore the fact that BAC was one of the … continue reading →
Highlights: 2Q lowered from 4% to 1.7%. 2011 lowered from 3.1% to 2.4% Additional 2Q forecasts: July March Unemployment 9.1% 8.9% Consumer spending .60 2.9 Equip. Investment 4.7 17.2 Resid. Construction 3.8 12 Fed Government … continue reading →
UPDATE: 12:00 PM PDT SPX, still at 1341, has had a few cracks, but so far no big plunges back down. But, it’s low volume and it has that distinct aroma of being propped up, today. Lots of gaps from minute to minute. Still looking for a follow through to the Gartley and rising wedge. … continue reading →
Although the comparisons to 2007, the bearish technical indicators and the dismal fundamental backdrop are reason enough for me to be bearish, there’s one SPX chart worth revisiting. First, we were in a rising wedge from March 6, 2009 until June 1, 2011. We broke below the wedge and have been in backtest mode ever … continue reading →
Friday, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) made a new high at 2433, a level not seen since Feb 2001. It got a lot of folks wondering whether SPX has another high on the way. It doesn’t, and here’s why. In 2001, when NDX peaked at 4816, it was a runaway. It had grown tenfold in less … continue reading →