Charts I’m Watching: March 2, 2012


Stocks are off to a modest sell-off.  The RUT continues to move ahead of SPX, trading below the SMA 10 and 20.  I’m adding an additional 150 shares to my model portfolio which, as of yesterday’s close, looked like this:

Some of the charts I’m watching…

RUT has broken its rising wedge and completed a back test of its RSI TLs.  I’m comfortable adding to my shorts.

SPX looks like it’s breaking down on the daily chart.  Looks like a back test on RSI…

But, the 60-min chart shows the importance of watching a variety of time lines.  I’d want to see a break of the red RSI TL before adding to my modest shorts.  In a normal market, I might not be quite as cautious, but this melt up has faked us out too many times to throw caution to the wind.

TZA with a solid break of its TL.  Tiny little back test, we might see more…

Oil is taking a breather today, with CL off 2.37 at this time.  I might be tempted to pull the plug and take the remaining profit, but look at the 60-min chart:

The decline was only to the bottom of a well-defined channel, and the RSI depicts a back test (of the yellow trend line) — albeit a deep one.  I’d like to see prices climb back above the red TL in order to maintain the medium-term uptrend.  As I mentioned when I put the position on, the price channel will be my guide.

On the high octane side, AAPL is hanging onto a slight gain, while NDX itself is flagging.  AAPL broke through its weekly rising wedge, but the monthly chart is still hanging on, with obvious negative divergence on all time frames.

NDX, currently at 2641 is looking good for a reversal around 2687-2696, the confluence of two crab patterns and a rising wedge and on negative divergence.  The RSI TL on the daily chart is showing signs of breaking down.

More after the close.


Charts I’m Watching: March 2, 2012 — 3 Comments

  1. Hi Pebble….
    So far at least, a nice end to the week.

    The most bearish I can be is the attached chart.  However, realistically, 76 is my current 'best target'.

    I picked up some April VIX calls earlier. Going Long VIX at 17s seems like an easy trade to me.

    Good wishes