It certainly looks like we’re almost there.

The eminis seem to be already there…

The EURUSD is clinging by its fingernails…

The dollar looks ready to rumble…

The USDJPY is making a bid for an IH&S, but has run smack dab into that yellow channel midline again…moment of truth for the yen…

This morning’s dip in SPX is appealing, but look how many times over the past several sessions the red channel midline (now around 1627.25) has come to its rescue…

A break below 1626.46 and it’s probably game-on.  But, we haven’t quite hit our 1635+ target.  I’m inclined to believe this is a fakeout to buy a little more time, shake out a few weak bulls before the final thrust.

UPDATE:  12:25 PM

SPX continues to bump along.  It recovered from the first plunge down to the red midline, and is back at it only 2 hours later.  This time, however, there’s a small Head & Shoulders Pattern at stake.  It would complete at 1627.33 and target around 1621.30.

Remember, we’ve seen more than a normal number of H&S Patterns not play out over the past couple of months.  So, odds are that this is another shakeout brought to you by your friendly neighborhood market makers.

As always, use stops — and update them frequently to keep them where you’re comfortable.

continued for members…

UPDATE:  1:25 PM

SPX will officially have dodged the H&S bullet at 1633.50 or so – probably in the next few minutes.  It is currently stuck at the .886 retracement of the move down from 1632.78.  A move up through 1632.78 signals a Crab Pattern completion to the 1.618 (1636.41) or possibly higher.

Remember, the purple 1.618 is at 1635.25 and the white 2.24 is at 1637.15.  I’m thinking it’ll be more like 1640.90 for a variety of reasons — chief among them that it places a .618 retracement right at 1576.09 and a .786 retracement very close to the 1553/1555 levels from the two large Crab Patterns that failed in March.

 

UPDATE:  1:50 PM

SPX just reached 1635.01.  We should see a reaction here, probably to the 1632.78 (former high) or perhaps even the red midline around the .618 at 1630.54.  But, there’s potentially more on the table.

I’ll play an interim short position here just for grins, keeping the long position in place.  Stops at 1635 for the short.  I’d say there’s maybe a 10% chance that 1635.01 was the top.

UPDATE:  2:15 PM

Just dipped below 1632.78.  Probably 60:40 that SPX rebounds from here.  I’m closing out my interim short.   If it keeps going, look for the .618 Fib intersection with the red midline at 1630.54.

I’d pick the short back up at 1629, and reconsider holding the long at <1626.91.

UPDATE:  2:49 PM

Just tagged the .886 at 1628.86.  Picking up the short again here and will close the long at 1626.91 as discussed above.

UPDATE:  3:02 PM

Went full short at 1627, going long again here at 1623.65 with stops at 1623.

I could be wrong, but I still think 1635 probably wasn’t the top.  This feels premature and too well controlled.  Next channel support is the red channel .25 at 1619.75.

Checking the dollar, DX completed a Gartley Pattern that should see it back off the .786, even if it still has more room to run (the .886 or 1.618.)

And, the EURUSD channel broke down — also with a .786 retracement.  I would expect a back test of the channel — possibly at the .500 Fib of 1.3098 — before any further drop to the .886 or the red .786 at 1.2850 (favored target.)

UPDATE:  3:52 PM

I’m going short again here at 1625, with an immediate target of 1614-1616.  Will likely hold into the close.  RSI charts make an argument for more downside.

 

 

 

 *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *

A little entertainment while we’re waiting…