Update on USDJPY: Jan 31, 2013

The pair continues on a tear, putting in a miniscule consolidation at the 87.5 – 89 range where I expected more of a correction and reaching our secondary target a full 10 weeks ahead of schedule.

Will we still get a significant correction here?

continued for membersNote that we’ve reached a new bundle of Fib levels: the small red 2.00, the purple 1.618 and the larger red .786.  The one that should matter the most is the largest red pattern.  Its .886 at 92.76 — right in the middle of our target range — is the most logical target from a harmonic standpoint (since the Point B came at just under the .500.)

The last 3 1/2 months have produced an unbelievably steep channel (either the purple or white, still open to interpretation) of around a point every five sessions!  The purple currently tops out around 92, while the white one extends all the way to the purple .382 of 92.92.

Daily RSI presents no particular impediments until we get to the intersection of the white midline and purple 75% line at around 76.5.  Sure, it’s showing negative divergence, but it has been since Jan 4th.

Weekly RSI topped 86 today, the highest level for any time period on my charts that go back to 1997.

Not sure I’d put any money on this one until we see clear signs of a top.  But, clearly, there are some interesting days ahead for the dollar if/when the euro loses its allure.

 

Comments

One response to “Update on USDJPY: Jan 31, 2013”

  1. Curiousmind3861 Avatar
    Curiousmind3861

    USDJPY has been going vertical, and it hit 92.9 today. Do you see it going even higher? What usually happens when price hit a harmonic target? EUR went over 1.37 today, and eased off a bit, do you think it is finally time for it to reverse or just taking a breather?