In our last update on the Dow, we noted that it had not only fallen through an important trend line but its SMA200 as well. From All Good Things on Oct 11:
DJIA is flirting with breaking below a long-term trend line and SMA200. A failure here opens the door to 23781, another 6.2% lower.
Two months after the breakdown, DJIA is indeed flirting with the 2.24 extension at 23781. Like SPX, it has completed a Head & Shoulders Pattern as well as a Flag Pattern.
Also, like SPX, it came up just shy of its .886 Fibonacci retracement yesterday (23881 vs 23781.)
The big question, then, is whether it’s done or whether it’s simply preparing for a more dramatic plunge.
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