Inflation Rises

August CPI came in hot, rising 0.1% in August instead of the consensus 0.1% decline. Core was even worse: 0.6% versus 0.3% consensus. The annual print also disappointed, coming in at 8.3% versus expectations of 8.0% or less.Having slightly overshot our 4153 target overnight, ES is now reversing sharply.continued for  members… … continue reading →

Should We Fear a Yield Curve Inversion?

It seems like everyone’s talking about the yield curve. Will it invert? If so, when? Would it imply or even precipitate a recession? How would it affect Fed policy? What would it mean for the stock market? Since our work focuses on forecasting markets, let’s set aside for the moment whether an inversion means a … continue reading →

Because They Can Can Can

Watching the “market” melt up and bonds barely budge in the face of all-time highs in the monthly and annual PPI print…  More grist for the Fed’s “transitory” inflation scenario. Inflation is no longer dominated solely by soaring oil/gas prices.  In other words, not transitory.Will the party end? Not as long as the Fed can … continue reading →

Not So Fast!

You could argue that the annual PCE print of 3.6%, the hottest since 1992, is merely a function of the base effect – last year’s crash in inflation.But that argument falls flat when you consider that MoM Core PCE, which is completely unaffected by the base effect, soared by a record 0.7%. Naturally, both stocks … continue reading →

Not Exactly Reassuring…

The markets weren’t exactly reassured by Powell’s testimony yesterday.  Bottom line, no one in their right mind buys the idea that we can have such strong GDP and wage growth but still need such accommodative policy. IMO, Powell was curt and sometimes downright evasive, which didn’t help matters. Stocks plunged to our initial downside target, … continue reading →

PPI Confirms Inflation Troubles

PPI just confirmed what CPI declared yesterday: Despite official White House discourse, there is inflation.Of course, it’s very clear that food, energy and trade services are the primary drivers.  Without them, PPI is as low as it was in Aug 2017.As a reminder, when Aug 2017 PPI was announced, the 10Y was about 2.1% versus … continue reading →

Update on COMP: Dec 7, 2018

Don’t look now, but COMP is approaching our 6760 target.  As we discussed on Oct 10 [see: Plan B] COMP faced significant downside if its 200-DMA didn’t hold. Bottom line, it didn’t.  It was off as much as 13.3% last month before beginning a bounce that was destined to fail.  Next week, it will get … continue reading →