Futures are flat as we enter the final month of a pretty solid year. Questions remain, however, regarding the economy’s ability to withstand the coming policy changes. continued for members… … continue reading →
Tag Archives: correction
August CPI came in hot, rising 0.1% in August instead of the consensus 0.1% decline. Core was even worse: 0.6% versus 0.3% consensus. The annual print also disappointed, coming in at 8.3% versus expectations of 8.0% or less.Having slightly overshot our 4153 target overnight, ES is now reversing sharply.continued for members… … continue reading →
It seems like everyone’s talking about the yield curve. Will it invert? If so, when? Would it imply or even precipitate a recession? How would it affect Fed policy? What would it mean for the stock market? Since our work focuses on forecasting markets, let’s set aside for the moment whether an inversion means a … continue reading →
Watching the “market” melt up and bonds barely budge in the face of all-time highs in the monthly and annual PPI print… More grist for the Fed’s “transitory” inflation scenario. Inflation is no longer dominated solely by soaring oil/gas prices. In other words, not transitory.Will the party end? Not as long as the Fed can … continue reading →
You could argue that the annual PCE print of 3.6%, the hottest since 1992, is merely a function of the base effect – last year’s crash in inflation.But that argument falls flat when you consider that MoM Core PCE, which is completely unaffected by the base effect, soared by a record 0.7%. Naturally, both stocks … continue reading →
USDJPY just reached our 140.74 target from three weeks ago [see: Analog Update Aug 5, 2019.]continued for members… … continue reading →
The markets weren’t exactly reassured by Powell’s testimony yesterday. Bottom line, no one in their right mind buys the idea that we can have such strong GDP and wage growth but still need such accommodative policy. IMO, Powell was curt and sometimes downright evasive, which didn’t help matters. Stocks plunged to our initial downside target, … continue reading →
PPI just confirmed what CPI declared yesterday: Despite official White House discourse, there is inflation.Of course, it’s very clear that food, energy and trade services are the primary drivers. Without them, PPI is as low as it was in Aug 2017.As a reminder, when Aug 2017 PPI was announced, the 10Y was about 2.1% versus … continue reading →
In our last update on the Dow, we noted that it had not only fallen through an important trend line but its SMA200 as well. From All Good Things on Oct 11: DJIA is flirting with breaking below a long-term trend line and SMA200. A failure here opens the door to 23781, another 6.2% lower. … continue reading →
Don’t look now, but COMP is approaching our 6760 target. As we discussed on Oct 10 [see: Plan B] COMP faced significant downside if its 200-DMA didn’t hold. Bottom line, it didn’t. It was off as much as 13.3% last month before beginning a bounce that was destined to fail. Next week, it will get … continue reading →