pebblewriter

Tag: trend lines

  • Fitch Downgrades US

    Fitch downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+, adding to stocks’ overnight decline.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 1, 2023

    With the July meltup finally behind us, futures are off moderately.

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  • Inflation Not Done

    We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning.

    The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – and for the next several months.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 17, 2023

    Futures are off slightly on low volume on a slow news day.

    Some significant Fibonacci levels have been reached, however, setting up potential large moves in equities.

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  • Minute by Minute

    The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything else.

    Futures are off about 0.50% as we approach the open.

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  • Charts I’m Watching Jun 20, 2023

    Futures are off modestly following the long holiday weekend, OPEX and much hotter than expected housing starts.

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  • Blowout NFP Complicates Fed’s Job

    Non-farm payrolls exploded higher in May, tallying 339K versus 190K consensus. On the other hand, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%.

    Futures initially slumped, as blowout job gains argue for further Fed tightening. But, VIX was hammered to lows of 15.12, a level not seen since Nov 2021, and the overnight ramp was salvaged, for now.

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  • Mixed Messages

    Futures bounced off our 50-day MA target and are up sharply on NVDA‘s blowout earnings/forecast, egged on by Speaker McCarthy’s latest promise that a debt ceiling resolution is on the way.

    Of course, this bullishness is unwarranted from a Fed rate hike perspective. Initial claims came in below expectations and Q2 GDP (the deflator was 4.2% vs 4.0 expected) was hotter than expected. Not exactly a scenario that supports a pause/drop.

    Unless VIX plunges below 18.58, this ramp job should be faded.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 23, 2023

    Today marks the third day in a row that ES has backtested the former resistance at 4190ish. Just a reminder, these things don’t happen by accident.

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  • Jawboning an OPEX Rally

    Yesterday’s 1.2% spurt higher was driven not only by the usual push in USDJPY and plunge in VIX, but a healthy dose of hopium regarding the debt ceiling crisis. Congressional and White House reps were nearly unanimous in declaring that a deal is as good as done.

    Whether they’re speaking the truth or simply trying to avoid a market meltdown a la 2011 remains to be seen. Both SPX and ES saw a bullish 10/20 cross, but it could unwind if ES closes back below the former resistance at 4166. Keep on eye on the ever proficuous VIX, which usually triggers algos to buy any significant dips by breaking below support such as the purple channel bottom below.

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