pebblewriter

Tag: RSI

  • PPI Soars, CPI on Deck

    Producer Prices for Final Demand in October jumped 0.6% MoM and 8.6% YoY (6.2% less food, energy and trade.)Futures were little changed… …though the 10Y slipped to a cycle low of 1.43%.

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  • Out of Sync

    SPX tagged a significant Fibonacci extension Friday, but ES came up short of its equivalent target at 4728. Meanwhile, CL is faltering and USDJPY is rolling over as VIX faces a bullish 10/20 cross. What does it all mean?

    Surprisingly, the answer might lie with the bond market.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Nov 5, 2021

    The 531K payrolls beat and Pfizer COVID-19 pill could influence the taper schedule. The 4.9% increase in wages should.

    Energy and food prices might well fall over the coming months. But, wages are sticky. Whether due to contracts, minimum wage rules, or just market forces, they are very difficult to reduce. While it’s true that workers need higher wages in order to keep up with spiraling cost inflation, this is undoubtedly more fuel for the non-transitory inflationary fires.

    Futures are up sharply on the news, which has the factors wondering what to do at ES 4700. Having delivered stocks (with a few trillion in help from the Fed) to all-time highs despite lackluster and occasionally bad news, what should they do with really good news that might speed up the taper?

    Stay tuned.

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  • The Big Picture: Oct 27, 2021

    Equity markets rarely fail to rally into the end of the year.  But, there have been several noteworthy Q4 exceptions over the years, each of them marked by VIX’s bounce off well-established trend lines.

    Note that SPX’s yellow channel has been rising at a compouned 12.2% per year since the 2009 bottom – historically a very decent rate of return.  With SPX currently testing the channel top as VIX tests the rising purple trend line, SPX is at a critical juncture where it must either correct or break out.

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  • Because They Can Can Can

    Watching the “market” melt up and bonds barely budge in the face of all-time highs in the monthly and annual PPI print…  More grist for the Fed’s “transitory” inflation scenario.

    Inflation is no longer dominated solely by soaring oil/gas prices.  In other words, not transitory.Will the party end? Not as long as the Fed can control volatility and interest rates – which are, for now at least, ignoring reality. Tomorrow’s another day…

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  • OPEC: Will They or Won’t They?

    OPEC+ is expected to increase production by another 400,000 bpd in today’s meeting, another dagger in the heart of the stubborn oil/gas rally. Of course, at this juncture, CL can backtest its SMA200 without even making a lower low. So, perhaps a pullback will finally be allowed.

    Given how important rising oil/gas prices have been to equity performance, stocks might just have a hard time digesting a significant pullback.

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  • Monday Morning Meltup

    Futures are continuing their meltup in the pre-market on a 4% bounce in crude oil and the usual overnight slump in VIX.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 6, 2021

    Stocks rarely drop over a 3-day weekend. This one was no exception. The miniscule decline we saw in the futures last night has been all but erased despite a conciliatory 5% bump in VIX to backtest its SMA10. No fuss, no muss.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 21, 2021

    ES came within 9 points of our next downside target before getting a nice bounce motivated primarily by USDJPY, which was working flat out to save the NKD from a scary, and long overdue dive to its SMA200.

    This bounce will be quite important to the bulls, who are no doubt hoping to avoid a bearish 10/20 cross.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 12, 2021

    Futures are off slightly on a low volume Monday following what should have been a bigger reaction to the latest PPI data that was off the charts.

    Either bond traders all took Friday off, or it would appear that the Fed has taken “supporting” the markets to new heights.

    Markets will have another chance to react this morning…unless, of course, VIX futures fail to react to the obvious support.continued for members… (more…)