SPX tagged a significant Fibonacci extension Friday, but ES came up short of its equivalent target at 4728. Meanwhile, CL is faltering and USDJPY is rolling over as VIX faces a bullish 10/20 cross. What does it all mean?
Surprisingly, the answer might lie with the bond market.
continued for members…The 10Y came very, very close to breaking down last week. If it drops below the red channel, stocks will likely take a hit.
Though, DXY is following TNX’s lead (for a change)…
...as EURUSD bounces one again… 
…and USDJPY takes the opportunity to roll over.
ES is still making a beeline for its 1.618…
…but SPX has been there, done that. 
DJI is almost in the same camp, coming up just 20 points shy of its 1.618.
Unless VIX plunges intraday, we’ll see a bullish 10/20 cross (bearish for stocks) tomorrow. 
CL looks to be in the last throws of a backtest, this time testing not only the purple channel bottom but the bearishly crossing SMA10 and 20.
RB is already well ahead of it and is likely to test its SMA200 in the next 24-48 hours.
With PPI coming out tomorrow and CPI on Wednesday…
…it still looks like GC and SI are making a run for their next upside targets: SI for its SMA200 and GC for its gray channel top or its purple neckline.
This is the first time in quite a while that none of the big three factors – VIX, CL and USDJPY – was agitating for a continuing rally. If TNX breaks down too and the rest remain bearish or just ambivalent, then the correction could soon follow.
Last, BTC is getting a very nice bounce this morning, perhaps on the notion that Elon’s $20 billion in TSLA sales might land in crypto. In any case, this is a very important juncture for BTC. I expect it to fail and revert to the cloud and dotted blue channel line at 55,700ish.
GLTA.