On April 2, 2012, SPX completed a Butterfly Pattern at 1421 — the 1.272 extension of the July – October 2011 plunge. It provided a great entry point for the fledgling pebblewriter.com’s first major short position. We scored over 20% in about 2 months [see: All the Pretty Butterflies] trading the 11% decline. XLF hadn’t … continue reading →
Tag Archives: harmonics
The best laid plans of mice and men Go often awry, And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy! Robert Burns, 1785 ORIGINAL POST: 6:45 AM EDT The wedges we’ve been watching on DX and EURUSD are playing out. EURUSD has broken out… …and DX has broken down. But, it’s the USDJPY … continue reading →
Owning AAPL shares these past seven months would have been about as much fun as having your annual cleaning done by Nazi war criminal with a penchant for pain and a disdain for novocaine. It might seem like it’s been in a free fall, but AAPL’s tumble from 705 has been very aptly guided by … continue reading →
The big story this morning is the meltdown taking place in the commodities complex. Gold is especially taking it on the chin, continuing the plunge that started on Friday with the critical loss of the LT channel we discussed last week, the horizontal support at 1520-1535, and the psychologically important 1500 level. Recall gold had … continue reading →
The chart of the day: We closed our longs (from 1539) yesterday, but are still a few points south of the market’s upside potential. While yesterday’s 1589.07 might end up being the top, I rather suspect we’ll move just a little higher. Recall that we anticipated being in this situation a week ago [Charts I’m … continue reading →
The largest channels are all pretty loose fits, with plenty of incursions that make forecasting with them iffy at best. But, the smaller channels and Harmonic Patterns have been pretty effective. Even though USDJPY has been running like a 燃える尾を持つ猫, there is growing risk of a downturn as it approaches 100. Consider the new channel … continue reading →
With Cyprus saved, the sanctity of the EU intact, and a US budget deal passed, we can all go back to watching the market ratchet up 10 points/day, right? Here’s the fundamental problem. continued for members… … continue reading →
The S&P 500 gained about 6% between the last update (Dec 20, 2012) and the Feb 19 highs of 1530.94. The index gave back half of the gains over the subsequent week, then retraced 88.6% of those losses over the next two sessions for a total move through Feb 28 of about 11%. Our … continue reading →
If rates really are heading back up in the near future, we’d expect to see bonds take a hit (and stocks, too, but that’s a different post.) Back on Jan 21, we focused on the 10-year treasury (ZN.) We observed that ZN had just completed a large Crab Pattern and broken down from a rising … continue reading →
RUT has reached the upper bound of a well-defined channel that dates back to 1998. It could leak slightly higher in reaching for the top of the large rising wedge and some key Fib levels, but I suspect RUT has reached a turning point. continued for members… … continue reading →