AAPL: Is it Safe?

Owning AAPL shares these past seven months would have been about as much fun as having your annual cleaning done by Nazi war criminal with a penchant for pain and a disdain for novocaine.

It might seem like it’s been in a free fall, but AAPL’s tumble from 705 has been very aptly guided by a well-defined channel, a few chart patterns and, to some extent, harmonic patterns.  The channel that’s been eating away at AAPL is shown below, along with two recent Head & Shoulders Patterns that helped it on its way.

But, it’s the chart patterns and the harmonic patterns that suggest AAPL is due for a substantial bounce.  Whether it turns into something more than that will depend on whether it break free of the falling channel from hell.

This is the set of major channels I’ve used for the past several months of charting AAPL.  Note that the purple channel broke down a few weeks ago, prompting the latest plunge.

But, AAPL should find support at the .75 line of the white channel around 380-385.  This is an equally well-defined channel that dates back 20 years.   Because channel placement is as much an art form as science, I like to have confirmation from other sources.

In this case, the harmonic picture is also quite bullish, at least in the short term.  There are quite a few potential patterns from which to choose.  But, note how the overlapping of several key Fibonacci retracements in the 391-395 range.

This group, seen better in the close-up below, includes the purple .786, the white .618, the yellow .500 and the red .886.

AAPL pushed down through them like they weren’t there yesterday, prompting many to wonder if it was heading much lower.  But, the channel lines mentioned above should provide the bounce that will bring them back into focus.

As to the purple channel, it’s done.  I’ve added a new, red channel that should take over going forward.  If we get the bounce I expect at 380-385, it will have been proven.

Where does AAPL go from here?  There’s still the not-so-small matter of the large H&S pattern that completed back in December (in white, above).  Recall that it targeted around 305.

If the large white channel shown above should fail, that’s a distinct possibility.  The falling white channel from 705 has shown remarkable staying power. And, the next lower gathering of key Fib lines is at 307-317.

But, I suspect the big white channel will provide a significant bounce before any new lows occur.  The top of the falling white channel is currently around 435 (though obviously dropping daily), and at 380, AAPL will have nearly met the price target of the latest H&S Pattern to complete.

If the overall market rebounds Friday as I expect, look for AAPL to perk up and participate.  A H&S pattern that’s brewing on SPX could easily take prices up to the 430 range.

If the overall market continues past 1597, AAPL could finally break out of its funk and — more importantly — that falling white channel.  Another backtest of the broken purple channel at 466ish would be a great initial objective.

Stay tuned.





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