Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print.
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Tag: gold
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Update on Currencies: Aug 4, 2023
Futures are up moderately on USD weakness. The EURUSD has backtested its recently broken red TL and its SMA10, sending the DXY back below a TL it was threatening to break above. This supports our thesis that the SMA200 is the most important target, but that the tag might wait until it reaches 1.087 or so.
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AAPL & AMZN on Deck
Yesterday’s stronger than expected ADP data and the Fitch downgrade did a number on stocks, with several indicators officially turning bearish for the first time in months. But, AAPL and AMZN, which make up over 10% of the S&P 500, haven’t reported yet. So, it might be a little early for bears to get excited.
We charted AMZN last week [see: Amazon – Can It Keep Delivering?] noting that it had reached important resistance and was overdue for a reversal.
It tested important support at its 50-day moving average yesterday which, if broken, could easily usher in another 10%+ to the downside.continued for members… (more…)
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Charts I’m Watching: Aug 1, 2023
With the July meltup finally behind us, futures are off moderately.
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BoJ: Just Kidding
It’s a big week for the market as many of the most important stocks are reporting amidst ongoing questions about the strength of the economy.
This morning, however, it’s all about the BoJ again. After effectively raising interest rates, they’ve jumped into the market to make sure interest rates don’t actually rise – boosting the USDJPY and, as a result, equity futures.
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FOMC Day: Jul 26, 2023
Equities have ramped almost 12% since the last Fed meeting – ignoring the prospect of higher interest rates for a longer period of time. Given the oil market’s recent breakout and the obvious base effect on inflation, we see a good chance of Powell presenting a more hawkish stance than the overbought market is prepared for…
…raising the prospect of spike in the 10Y to 4.76% by mid-August. One of the few developments that could prevent it: a collapse in oil/gas prices.continued for members… (more…)
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Forcing Their Hand
The recent breakout in oil/gas prices has now inspired a breakout in the 10Y.
It’s an important headwind for the Fed, which had relied on falling energy prices to keep inflation and interest rates at an acceptable level.continued for members… (more…)
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Charts I’m Watching: Jul 21, 2023
Just saw that the great Tony Bennett passed early this morning. It was always a thrill to see him perform. He was one of the last great ones, and will be missed.
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Futures are leaking higher on this OPEX Friday following SPX’s bounce off its .786 Fib.
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Charts I’m Watching: Jul 17, 2023
Futures are off slightly on low volume on a slow news day.
Some significant Fibonacci levels have been reached, however, setting up potential large moves in equities.continued for members… (more…)
