pebblewriter

Tag: gold

  • Powell Speaks

    Futures have bounced back from overnight lows in advance of Jay Powell’s comments at 12pm ET at the Economic Club of NY.

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  • Mideast Worries Mount

    Escalating carnage in the Middle East points to a protracted and increasingly complex set of circumstances for markets, with oil prices and currencies confused as to how to respond. Futures are off moderately this morning, supporting our notion that a 200-DMA tag is still in the cards.

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  • The Confidence Game

    Futures are sagging once again as they test our latest downside target to be tagged.

    One has to wonder how much ground will need to be given up in order for consumer confidence to drop back below 100.

    Note that the Dow is testing its 200-day moving average – always an important threshold when it comes to investor confidence.continued for members… (more…)

  • FOMC Decision Day: Sep 20, 2023

    Futures are up moderately in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 18, 2023

    Futures are off slightly as we approach the open, with an FOMC rate decision and plenty of economic data in the week ahead.

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  • CPI Tops Estimates: Sep 13, 2023

    August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy.

    Futures are flat ahead of the open… …with VIX making lower lows on algo trading. Rising inflation, driven largely by YoY comps for energy prices, should make a Fed pause less likely.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 12, 2023

    Futures gave back most of yesterday’s gains overnight as the August CPI print approaches.

    Our gas price model suggests headline CPI is due for a significant increase.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 11, 2023

    Futures are up about 0.50% percent on a rebound in tech shares.

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  • Food for Thought

    There’s some good research on marketwatch.com this morning that illustrates the fact that no interest rate inversion (10s1s) in the past 70 years occurred without a subsequent recession. The average lag was about 14 months, meaning that we’re now officially overdue.

    Furthermore, none of the post-inversion equity rallies lasted. Every single one was completely reversed, resulting in a bear market.  Food for thought.

    It’s another quiet morning so far, with futures flat for the most part after testing our 20-day moving average target yesterday.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 6, 2023

    Futures have slipped about 10 points on quiet trading.

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