pebblewriter

Tag: gold

  • All Eyes on Inflation Data

    Futures are off modestly after the usual overnight VIX slump. Markets are focused on this week’s economic data, with CPI coming out Wednesday and PPI and initial claims on Thursday. continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 7, 2023

    ES nailed our initial downside target yesterday and is currently off about 10 points this morning following weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls.

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  • Minute by Minute

    The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything else.

    Futures are off about 0.50% as we approach the open.

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  • PCE in Line, Spending Misses

    May PCE and core PCE were in line with expectations at 0.1% and 0.3% MoM respectively.  YoY core came in at 4.6%, slightly below expectations of 4.7%. The most notable surprise was MoM personal spending which tumbled from 0.6% to 0.1%.

    Futures, already up moderately following VIX’s overnight drop, ramped even higher.

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  • Powell: Inflation Not Over

    “Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go,” Powell asserted in prepared remarks in advance of his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

    Our charts certainly agree. As posted last week, there is little chance of inflation not bouncing back up unless oil and gas prices collapse from current levels.

    Futures are off moderately in anticipation of Powell’s truth-telling.

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  • Charts I’m Watching Jun 20, 2023

    Futures are off modestly following the long holiday weekend, OPEX and much hotter than expected housing starts.

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  • FOMC Day: Jun 14, 2023

    According to futures and talking heads, there’s a 94% chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes this afternoon – though perhaps with a hawkish tilt. By our reckoning, equities have piled on at least 6% in the past few weeks in anticipation of this outcome.Is it justified?

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 9, 2023

    The prop job continues, with VIX reaching a lower low and the DXY still under pressure.

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  • Jobless Claims Spike Higher

    Initial claims spiked to levels not seen since October 2021, another indication of a slowing economy.  Applications rose by 28,000 to 261,000, well above the consensus of 237K.

    So far, futures have ignored the print.

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  • Blowout NFP Complicates Fed’s Job

    Non-farm payrolls exploded higher in May, tallying 339K versus 190K consensus. On the other hand, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%.

    Futures initially slumped, as blowout job gains argue for further Fed tightening. But, VIX was hammered to lows of 15.12, a level not seen since Nov 2021, and the overnight ramp was salvaged, for now.

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