pebblewriter

Tag: gold

  • Good Enough

    It seems the algos are content to hold the current line instead of rallying into the end of the year – this Friday.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Dec 27, 2022

    S&P futures are quiet this morning, back to even after being up about 30 points overnight.continued for members… (more…)

  • Give and Take

    What the algos giveth, David Tepper (bearish) and Q3 GDP (+3.2% vs 2.9% est. and -0.6% last) taketh away. Futures are off sharply as we approach the open.

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  • Bulls: Throwing in the Towel?

    As expected, Powell and Co. were not amused by the market’s recent exuberance and decided to take things down a notch.

    The algos haven’t yet given up, though, with VIX still under pressure and DXY remaining oversold.The reversal is working just fine so far. But, with OPEX tomorrow and two weeks left in the year, we’re left to wonder whether the bulls are ready to throw in the towel.

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  • FOMC Day: Dec 14, 2022

    They’re all important, but this one carries extra significance due to the potential for a slowdown in rate hikes, or at least the commentary regarding one.

    Futures almost backtested the 200-day moving average overnight, but are now essentially flat.

    After all the excitement yesterday, our targets remain the same across the board. If anything, the hoopla complicated the Fed’s task by aptly demonstrating the persistent froth in the markets.

    I believe this practically guarantees that Powell will pull another Jackson Hole and scold investors for their irrational exuberance. Whether it will be enough to counteract the OPEX effect is anyone’s guess.

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  • Crisis Averted

    Based on how the market is reacting, inflation is no longer a concern. The Fed will pivot and easy money will be back in no time. Except, as we’ve been discussing, this is one of those weeks which almost always overreacts to the upside: FOMC meeting, OPEX, end of year, etc.

    As noted yesterday, the dreaded bearish signals such as a simple 10/20 cross have been averted – at least for now – and the algos are throwing a party.

    Yesterday’s gap higher in VIX (in conjunction with a 1.4% rally in stocks) was indeed a massive head fake in light of this morning’s 13% smackdown.  Talk about closing a gap…From where I sit, however, the Fed’s job just got tougher. While monthly CPI came in slightly lighter than expected, we still have problematic wage and rent inflation, and financial conditions are getting looser, not tighter.Remember Jackson Hole?  Maybe it’s VIX’s 13% plunge which is the headfake…

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  • All In a Day’s Work

    Mystified by the fact that futures ramped higher overnight even though VIX is up over 6%? It’s all in a day’s work for the algos, especially on the eve of a critical Fed decision in an OPEX week at the end of the year when the S&P 500 is facing a bearish 10/20 cross.

    The point, of course, is to prevent that 10/20 cross which (as the futures demonstrate) is child’s play.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Dec 7, 2022

    Futures have rebounded from the worst of their overnight losses, but are still on the wrong side of the tracks following yesterday’s breakdown of the rising wedge.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Dec 5, 2022

    Futures are again backtesting the 200-day moving average as we approach the open.

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  • Powell on Deck

    Powell’s speech will take on added importance following the release of this morning’s hotter than expected Q3 GDP print on the heels of a big ADP miss.

    Futures are flat after completing the backtest of the trend line from October we had been expecting.

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