pebblewriter

Tag: gold

  • Election Day: Nov 8, 2022

    With the election today and CPI coming out Thursday, things are bound to start getting a little more volatile again.

    VIX can’t stay in this channel forever…

    Don’t forget to vote!

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  • Waiting on CPI

    More of the same…perhaps until CPI comes out on Thursday.

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  • FOMC Day: Nov 2, 2022

    The market is essentially unchanged from yesterday, with VIX in a position to make or break this rally unless the FOMC delivers a significant surprise.

    We’ve seen this movie before: a sharp rally into a Fed meeting or CPI report that wipes out the put buyers and positions the market for a drop from a higher price level once the disappointing news is delivered.

    There is widespread expectation of a 75 bps hike, but less agreement about whether the FOMC will be as dovish as the market’s latest rally would suggest.

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  • Algos: Ready for FOMC

    In yet another reminder of their sway over the markets, the algos have brought stocks to the brink of a breakout by putting VIX at the brink of another breakdown.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 31, 2022

    Futures are off about 0.50% as we approach Wednesday’s FOMC decision and a slew of important economic data.

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  • Q3 GDP Beats Estimates

    Q3 GDP came in at 2.6%, beating the 2.3% consensus and of course Q2’s -0.6%. While good news for the economy, it does little to advance the narrative that the Fed might be ready to pare future rate hikes.

    Nevertheless, VIX fell… …so futures rose slightly on the news.continued for members… (more…)

  • Decision Time

    ES rallied 7.3% off the Oct 13 lows to tag our target at the white channel midline – also the 20% correction mark.

    This is the same target we added on Oct 14 [see: It Wasn’t Oversold] as it’s an important line in the sand.

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  • Another Good News is Bad News Story

    Unemployment claims came in lower than expected, further dashing the hopes of those praying for a Fed pivot.  Meanwhile, the OPEX levitation continues.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 17, 2022

    Pretty standard fare for an OPEX week…futures have ramped 1.6% higher on a bounce in USDJPY and CL and a trounce in VIX.

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  • Our Analog: Then and Now

    Futures have been all over the map this weekend following the breakdown of the small white flag pattern on Friday.  But, the key factor is that VIX is higher and should experience a golden cross as we approach PPI tomorrow and CPI on Thursday.

    Our downside targets remain unchanged with SPX now within a few percent of our analog’s target from this past May [see: Analog Watch.]

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