VIX and the 10Y have both reached key chart pattern support.
It’s a little early for a sprint to the barn. Will the algos take a breather?
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Tag: fed
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Charts I’m Watching: Nov 8, 2023
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FOMC Decision: Nov 1, 2023
Futures have bounced back from moderate overnight losses in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC decision.
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Charts I’m Watching: Oct 31, 2023
Futures are up slightly on as investors look ahead to tomorrow’s FOMC decision.
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Charts I’m Watching: Oct 24, 2023
Futures are up moderately on positive earnings reports from several key equities.
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Powell Speaks
Futures have bounced back from overnight lows in advance of Jay Powell’s comments at 12pm ET at the Economic Club of NY.
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CPI Tops Estimates: Sep 13, 2023
August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy.
Futures are flat ahead of the open…
…with VIX making lower lows on algo trading. 
Rising inflation, driven largely by YoY comps for energy prices, should make a Fed pause less likely.
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Charts I’m Watching: Sep 11, 2023
Futures are up about 0.50% percent on a rebound in tech shares.
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Powell Back in the Spotlight
It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time:
“TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.”
After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.
The only question is whether Powell will fess up to the coming rise in CPI and, therefore interest rates, in his speech at Jackson Hole (1005 ET.)As we discussed a few days ago [see: Interesting Goings On in Currencies] the cross currents in rates and currencies are problematic for the market. We saw ample evidence yesterday when futures gave up a strong opening – breaking out of a well-formed channel only to close deep in the red.
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Charts I’m Watching: Aug 24, 2023
Futures have broken out on a new VIX “breakdown” and the runup in NVDA shares – now the 4th largest component of the S&P500.
This seems off to us, as Powell is likely to come out more hawkish than expected in his Jackson Hole comments.continued for members… (more…)
