pebblewriter

Tag: economics

  • FOMC Decision: Nov 1, 2023

    Futures have bounced back from moderate overnight losses in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC decision.

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  • Powell Speaks

    Futures have bounced back from overnight lows in advance of Jay Powell’s comments at 12pm ET at the Economic Club of NY.

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  • The Confidence Game

    Futures are sagging once again as they test our latest downside target to be tagged.

    One has to wonder how much ground will need to be given up in order for consumer confidence to drop back below 100.

    Note that the Dow is testing its 200-day moving average – always an important threshold when it comes to investor confidence.continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 18, 2023

    Futures are off slightly as we approach the open, with an FOMC rate decision and plenty of economic data in the week ahead.

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  • Powell Back in the Spotlight

    It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time:

    “TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.”

    After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.The only question is whether Powell will fess up to the coming rise in CPI and, therefore interest rates, in his speech at Jackson Hole (1005 ET.)

    As we discussed a few days ago [see: Interesting Goings On in Currencies] the cross currents in rates and currencies are problematic for the market. We saw ample evidence yesterday when futures gave up a strong opening  – breaking out of a well-formed channel only to close deep in the red.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 22, 2023

    Futures are up 0.40% largely on bullish algo positioning……with VIX now down 13.4% since Friday’s 200-day moving average tag.

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  • Update on Currencies: Aug 4, 2023

    Futures are up moderately on USD weakness.  The EURUSD has backtested its recently broken red TL and its SMA10, sending the DXY back below a TL it was threatening to break above.  This supports our thesis that the SMA200 is the most important target, but that the tag might wait until it reaches 1.087 or so.

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  • AAPL & AMZN on Deck

    Yesterday’s stronger than expected ADP data and the Fitch downgrade did a number on stocks, with several indicators officially turning bearish for the first time in months. But, AAPL and AMZN, which make up over 10% of the S&P 500, haven’t reported yet. So, it might be a little early for bears to get excited.

    We charted AMZN last week [see: Amazon – Can It Keep Delivering?] noting that it had reached important resistance and was overdue for a reversal. It tested important support at its 50-day moving average yesterday which, if broken, could easily usher in another 10%+ to the downside.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 1, 2023

    With the July meltup finally behind us, futures are off moderately.

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  • Powell Doesn’t Disappoint

    He could have gone full hawk, but he didn’t. Even in the face of economic data (that the rest of us can now see) which was uniformly positive and a coming bump in inflation, Powell chose the route that best supported stocks. ES bounced at its SMA10 and is surging toward its .886 Fib retracement.

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