Sure OPEX, But Then What?

Futures are up about 1% this morning – par for the course for an options expiration Friday. The Chinese prime rate cut is no doubt helping. But, what happens next week as new and pending home sales, durable goods, FOMC minutes, GDP, PCE and Michigan Sentiment come rolling in? This will be a serious test … continue reading →

Analog in Play

Futures are all over the map this morning, with the overnight losses largely erased at one point. The key, though, is that SPX bounced back above a key Fib level after tagging its 20% target last week. Although it’s still early stages, our analog is in play. continued for members… … continue reading →

Bitcoin’s Meltdown

BTC reached our next downside target at 28,600 last night, then dropped as low as 25,401 before bouncing back to current levels. It’s not unusual for BTC to overshoot important support. And, this .618 Fib level is theoretically important support. But, it’s also important to remember that a bounce is sometimes just a backtest of … continue reading →

A Swing and a Miss

ES spent 11 hours hanging around our next downside target yesterday.  While the session had many characteristics of capitulation, the fact that SPX didn’t quite reach significant support (3956) suggests that the overnight ramp is a head fake.continued for members… … continue reading →

Nobody Saw it Coming

The financial press usually starts to take things seriously about this point in a correction. The permabulls aren’t calling bottoms any more, while the bears are licking their chops. It never fails, someone on TV says something like “no one saw this coming.” It’s silly, of course. What they mean is that they didn’t see … continue reading →

The Reflation Trade

Remember how excited the bulls were about the reflation trade? Higher interest rates meant the economy was reopening at a good clip. What could be better than that? Things look a little different from the perspective of 3%+, don’t they? Nothing alarming here… Remember, it’s not the inversions that bite, but the spikes higher which … continue reading →

A Failure to Communicate

Remember that scene in Cool Hand Luke where Paul Newman mouths off to the Captain after a failed escape attempt? He doesn’t initially appreciate the gravity of his situation. He is soon reminded. That’s what yesterday’s post-Fed presser felt like. Powell was trying to convey the sense that the Fed means business. It is going … continue reading →