Blink, and you might have missed the selloff this morning when nonfarm payrolls came in much higher than expected but the January print was revised sharply lower.
Fortunately, the algos were on it, immediately crashing VIX to a point where a 15-pt decline in ES turned into a 15-pt gain.
This should put SPX at its 1.272 Fib extension, a potentially important level of overhead resistance ahead of next week’s CPI and PPI prints.
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Futures are off moderately this morning as investors prepare for FOMC minutes and NVDA earnings tomorrow.
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Retail sales plunged 0.8% in January, far below estimates of -0.2% and last month’s +0.4%. The miss can’t be attributed solely to seasonality, as the Jan 2023 print was a massive +3.7% gain. The annual gain from Jan 2024 was a meager 0.6%.
It has been a tough week for economic data. Inflation higher than expected and retail sales much lower than expected – sounds like a recipe for stagflation. With the UK officially sliding into recession, can the US be far behind?
Futures have given up some of their slight overnight gains.
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January CPI came in hotter than expected, taking a March rate cut off the table and casting serious doubts on a May rate cut.
Futures are off sharply, shedding over 1% to reach the bottom of the rising green channel from Oct 2023.
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CPI came in slightly hotter than expected at 0.1% versus 0.0% expected and prior (annual 3.1% vs 3.1%.) Core was 4.0% (unchanged) but 0.3% monthly versus 0.2% prior and 0.0% expected.) Core goods actually fell 0.3% while much stickier services rose a blistering 0.5%. This is all a bit of a disappointment for the rate cut crowd.
Futures are off slightly.
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Algos popped in the past hour on a larger than expected increase in initial jobless claims with the more important NFP due out tomorrow.
But, the more dramatic move has been in oil, with CL reaching our next downside target and RB well on its way to its own.
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Official core PCE came in at 3.5% YoY (0.2% MoM) which was high enough to knock fuutres off their overnight highs but not enough to drive VIX above its 10-day moving average.
We pay a lot of attention to VIX as it’s perhaps the most important daily driver of algo behaviour. After poking up above its SMA10 in October for all of nine sessions, it has now spent an entire month ducking below it – stymieing any equity pullbacks…until now.
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October CPI came in unchanged following a 0.4% increase in September. For the year, CPI dropped to 3.2% from 3.7% in September. Core came in at 4.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM.
Futures soared on the print.
As we have anticipated for the past several months, it was a sharp drop in gas prices which produced the equity-friendly print. From CPI Continues Falling on July 12:
As we discussed last month, the benefit from YoY price declines in oil/gas has maxed out unless prices continue to fall. In other words, central bankers might need to drive oil/gas prices even lower.
From June’s No Surprise:
It’s important to note that oil/gas mustn’t rally any further. If gas were to level out at current levels, the strong positive correlation between YoY gas prices and CPI indicate that inflation would be on the rise from now through the end of the year.
And, Powell: Inflation Not Over:
… there is little chance of inflation not bouncing back up unless oil and gas prices collapse from current levels.
The breakout in July following OPEC’s production cut was followed by an incredible increase in geopolitical risks related to the Israel-Hamas war. Yet oil and gas prices are lower than they have been in almost two years.
It might not be a big enough drop to help Americans forget the 6.7% annual increase in shelter expenses. But, it’s certainly enough to break stocks out of their latest swoon.
Mission accomplished.
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This is one of the biggest weeks for economic data in quite some time. We get October CPI tomorrow, PPI and retail sales on Wednesday, initial claims on Thursday, and housing starts and permits on Friday. Of all these data, CPI looms largest for the markets.
Recall that September core CPI came in at 4.1% YoY, with shelter (+7.2% YoY) accounting for over 70% of the increase. With the recent sharp drop in mortgage rates, shelter could remain stubbornly high, complicating the Fed’s inflation fighting efforts and thus paring the market’s optimism.
Futures are off moderately in advance of tomorrow’s data after nailing our channel top target.
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August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy.
Futures are flat ahead of the open…
…with VIX making lower lows on algo trading. 
Rising inflation, driven largely by YoY comps for energy prices, should make a Fed pause less likely.
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