June CPI came in slightly lower than expected: +0.2% MoM versus +0.3% expected and 2.97% YoY, the lowest since March 2021. Core CPI fell to 4.8%.

Futures had already popped overnight, but the soft CPI further boosted the gains with the .785 Fib level top of mind.

As we discussed last month, the benefit from YoY price declines in oil/gas has maxed out unless prices continue to fall. The chart below shows the effects if gas prices were to stabilize at current levels.In other words, central bankers might need to drive oil/gas prices even lower.

continued for members…

Note that VIX is perched at the SMA10… …which is still above the SMA20 even as VIX plunges again.EURUSD popped up to the red channel top and another backtest of the rising white channel, both representing resistance.

While USDJPY continues to slump.This leaves DXY at horizontal support again, with a breakdown necessary if stocks are to continue to climb. CL has reached the top of the falling white channel and the white .618, with the SMA200 just above…

…while RB has problematically (see above) broken out of the falling purple channel.The softer inflation numbers have taken some steam away from the 10Y.more later…