New Highs for CPI

CPI reached a new cycle high in June: 9.1% versus expectations of 8.8%. This is the highest print since November 1981. Core came in at 5.9%. Monthly prints were 1.3% headline and 0.7% core. The recent decline in oil and gas prices – although substantial – came too late to help mitigate June inflation. The … continue reading →

Small Business Recession Warning

If small businesses are the backbone of the economy, we’re in deep trouble. So says the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index, which reached an all-time low last month. From the report: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.6 points in June to 89.5, marking the sixth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jul 11, 2022

Futures are off moderately, with moves in currencies supporting our analog’s continuing bearish stance. All eyes are on Wednesday’s CPI print, with initial claims and PPI on Thursday and retail sales and Michigan sentiment on Friday. continued for members… … continue reading →

Abe Dead, Abenomics on Life Support

The universe has no trouble surprising us at times – things that make you stop and say “hmmm.” It is perhaps ironic that Shinzo Abe, architect of the greatest experiment in central bank monetary expansion and market manipulation in our lifetimes, has been shot dead as that experiment is being unwound. Naturally, the Nikkei futures … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jul 7, 2022

Futures ramped higher overnight on yet another drubbing of VIX. It has all the hallmarks of a headfake, however, so caution is warranted for those following along – particularly if VIX holds 26.  Our analog continues to suggest much lower prices in the weeks ahead. continued for members… … continue reading →

Update on Currencies: Jul 6, 2022

EURUSD and DXY have officially tagged the targets we set for them several months ago.  Recall that in the Mar 7 Update on Currencies, we noted that the Ukraine invasion could accelerate DXY’s next leg up. The yellow .707 at 106.276 and white 1.272 at 106.741 both intersect the white channel top in late 2022 – … continue reading →

That Sinking Feeling

As anyone on a budget could tell you, the headline of this post is hardly news. Income isn’t keeping up with expenses, and isn’t likely to any time soon. The Fed might prefer PCE over CPI because it ignores food and gas prices. But, it’s those very categories which are making it difficult for the … continue reading →

Q1 GDP Slumps Further

Stocks are essentially flat following a slight downward revision in Q1 GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% and export numbers which are truly circling the drain. The disappointing data came on the heels of the worst consumer confidence reading since Feb 2021 and three (so far) Fed presidents advocating a 75 bps rate hike in July. … continue reading →

But It Looks Like a Rally…

Following a series of intraday ramps, futures shot up above the 10-day moving average as soon as the market closed. Bogus? Of course. But, the record will reflect (and the algos have responded to) a seemingly bullish move. Chase it at your own peril. Today’s tricks will include trying to get past the 10am New … continue reading →