New Highs for CPI

CPI reached a new cycle high in June: 9.1% versus expectations of 8.8%. This is the highest print since November 1981. Core came in at 5.9%. Monthly prints were 1.3% headline and 0.7% core.

The recent decline in oil and gas prices – although substantial – came too late to help mitigate June inflation. The Jun YoY price increase in gas remained strong at 60.73% – among the highest readings recorded in recent years.Futures are dumping on the news, as it clearly takes smaller Fed rate hikes off the table. VIX is even forgoing its usual pre-market dump and breaking out instead.Our analog remains on track.

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