Small Business Recession Warning

If small businesses are the backbone of the economy, we’re in deep trouble. So says the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index, which reached an all-time low last month. From the report:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.6 points in June to 89.5, marking the sixth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased seven points to a net negative 61%, the lowest level recorded in the 48-year survey. Expectations for better conditions have worsened every month this year.

Key findings:

  • The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher decreased 13 points from May to a net negative 28%, a severe decline.
  • Fifty percent of owners reported job openings that could not be filled, down one point from May, but historically very high.
  • The net percent of owners raising average selling prices decreased three points to a net 69% seasonally adjusted, following May’s record high reading.

Meanwhile, the market is pinning its hopes on a CPI number (due out tomorrow) that isn’t so bad that interest rates must be raised my more or so good that they signal a recession.

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