If small businesses are the backbone of the economy, we’re in deep trouble. So says the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index, which reached an all-time low last month. From the report:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.6 points in June to 89.5, marking the sixth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased seven points to a net negative 61%, the lowest level recorded in the 48-year survey. Expectations for better conditions have worsened every month this year.

Key findings:

• The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher decreased 13 points from May to a net negative 28%, a severe decline.
• Fifty percent of owners reported job openings that could not be filled, down one point from May, but historically very high.
• The net percent of owners raising average selling prices decreased three points to a net 69% seasonally adjusted, following May’s record high reading.

Meanwhile, the market is pinning its hopes on a CPI number (due out tomorrow) that isn’t so bad that interest rates must be raised my more or so good that they signal a recession.

continued for members…The big picture for equities:

EURUSD actually dipped below parity overnight, touching .9999 before bouncing back very slightly.

While USDJPY continues to edge higher. Gold and silver are both down, with SI tagging the C=A extension at 18.605. And, BTC has given up the SMA10 and SMA50 again.CL and RB are both screaming toward our backtest targets…

…which has put a little extra pressure on TNX……and left the 2s10s lower than it’s been since the 2007 inversion.