Few stocks exemplify the current excesses of the stock market better than TSLA. In our last posted update on Jan 30 [see: TSLA on Autopilot?] we noted that it was approaching the top of a channel and a potential Fibonacci reversal point at 653.26 [131.15 post-split.] We noted at the time:
If it reverses here, the nearest support is at the 10-day moving average at 550, with 521 [104.20 post-split] being the nearest strong support and the previous high of 389.61 [77.92 post split] the next most likely.
That weekend, ARK Invest said it estimated Tesla shares would be worth about 7,000 (1,400 post-split) by 2024. And on Monday, Argus analyst William Selesky boosted his 12-month price target on the shares from 556 to 808 (161.6 post-split.)
With such bullish tailwinds, TSLA gapped past the 2.24 extension on the open Monday morning and broke out of the channel, reaching the 3.618 extension at 190.29 the following day before running out of steam. By Mar 18, it had plunged to its 77.92 previous high, shedding a stunning 64% in 6 weeks.
In previous posts [see: Can TSLA Survive This Crash?, Is the Pressure Getting to Elon Musk? and TSLA Skids Into An Important Target] we have noted Elon Musk’s propensity to “support” the stock at important inflection points. Remember “Funding Secured?” Remaining above its 200-day moving average and previous highs certainly qualified as important.
Since Mar 18, TSLA has soared an astounding 750%, surpassing even Selesky’s revised Aug 31 target of 566 following several sessions reminiscent of February’s blow-off top. Is there an end in sight?
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