Last May we questioned whether TSLA could avoid a crash. 
The answer came quickly, as TSLA bounced back above horizontal resistance a month later. Since then, however, it’s been a constant battle — marked by multiple breakdowns and rescues (most of which landed Musk in hot water.)
The latest bounce, however, pits the stock against the horizontal resistance, the .382 Fib retracement and a falling wedge top — triple resistance. Then, came the latest disastrous forecast miss.
Now, TSLA looks likely to test 250 again. If it fails, it could fail in a very big way. 
continued for members…
As it turns out, it matters a great deal whether you chart TSLA in arithmetic or logarithmic mode. The above charts are log. If we revert to arith, however, the picture is a little more negative.
The rising yellow channel in the May 2018 chart has been replaced by a yellow TL here. And, it clearly broke down. The only problem with shorting the crap out of TSLA has been that every time it breaks down, Musk does or says something to manipulate the stock price higher (a tactic which will see him in court today.)
While channels are affected by the switch from log to arith, harmonics are not. The white grid has yet to see its .618 tested. So, for now, a push to the .886 remains a good possibility if the red TL at 250ish breaks down.
However, this would violate the red TL. So, it seems at least as likely that we’ll get a bounce at 250, again at 236.43, and ultimately a drop to the .786 at 194.78, ideally in August or September. Note that it’s reasonably close to the purple .886, which adds to the legitimacy.
The rest of the gang:
Futures have managed to remain just above the .886 going into today’s session.
As usual, much will depend on VIX, which has held the white channel bottom so far.
USDJPY is being quite supportive, with another threat of breaking out of its falling channel.
EURUSD and DXY continue to move sideways.
CL and RB remain supportive, with CL suggesting a breakout which I believe is a headfake.
The 10Y is still in backtest mode — which is net supportive of stocks.
The 2s10s is at double resistance.
To sum up, almost every factor is either being supportive of stocks or is doing no harm. Though, nothing has gone so far as to help stocks break out — implying that the market is on hold — presumably to maintain its perch at a level from which a substantial drop (say, related to Brexit) wouldn’t do so much damage.
I’m going to check out a local CFA event over lunch…will post more later.