Charts I’m Watching: Jan 19, 2024

Keep an eye on home sales, due out at 10am ET. Shelter has been one of the more problematic categories of inflation for the Fed, showing a 6.2% annual increase in December. Without a doubt, it remains the biggest impediment to getting inflation back down to 2%. Like yesterday, the overnight ramp has faded as … continue reading →

A Look Ahead at 2024

To quote the great Yogi Berra, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But, there are a number of important themes that should drive markets in 2024. The elephants in the forecasting room are the so-called Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA and NVDA) which soared 105% in 2023 versus the … continue reading →

The Year in Review: 2023

These annual reviews are always interesting. This past year of charting, like most, saw some enormous successes as well as some lessons in humility.  More importantly, though, the markets’ behaviour in 2023 offers vital insight into the year ahead. Equities As we noted back on Jan 10, 2023 in A Look Ahead at 2023, the … continue reading →

PCE Gives Fed Room to Cut

PCE came in below expectations. Headline was -0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY. Core was +0.1% and 3.2% YoY.  This was the smallest rise since April 21, and offers the Fed additional room to consider cuts in 2024 should the trend continue.Futures added to modest gains after the print.  The key issue remains: whether the moderating … continue reading →

Finally, a Backtest

We finally saw the backtest we’ve been expecting as SPX fell a whopping 70 points (-1.47%), almost reaching its 10-day moving average and bleeding off its overbought condition. ES came within a few points of our Fibonacci backtest, also coming up just short of its 10-DMA.continued for members… … continue reading →