It’s only been three weeks since the stock market melted down [see: Rome is Burning] and only one week since the bond market melted down [see: Bond Market Debacle.]
Since then, both have recovered . The S&P 500 has risen over 700 points and the 10Y has shed 20 bps. So, the worst is over, right?
Then we see data such as the manufacturing outlook the Dallas Fed put out yesterday…
…and consumer confidence released on Monday…
…and the doubts seem pretty well justified.
In our last Big Picture post in November 2024, we turned to technical indicators to suggest when it would make sense to get bearish – identifying the 50-day moving average which repeatedly (6 times!) sounded the alarm over the next several months before the market finally collapsed in February.
What do the technicals suggest now that Trump’s tariff policy has been universally derided as an economic disaster for the US and its trading partners? Can markets recover while the Trump chaos we warned of has wrapped its tentacles around the global economy?
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