Defying Gravity

The 10Y broke back into the channel it broke out of several weeks ago, primarily on the enthusiasm around the treasury secretary designate – a hedge fund manager – will keep the plates spinning for another 4 years. Whether or not he will is another matter. But, for now, the algos believe it and the … continue reading →

Inflation Ticks Higher: Nov 13, 2024

Headline CPI rose 0.2% for the fourth straight month in October. Year-over-year, however, it increased by 2.6% versus 2.4% in September. This was in line our with expectations and increases the odds of the pause we’ve forecast for December’s meeting. Core CPI’s 3.3% increase (0.3% MoM) further reinforced the market’s concern regarding the inflationary effects … continue reading →

Moment of Truth

SPX reached our 6009 target (from August) two days ahead of schedule, leaving ES 6064 as the last remaining upside target in the vicinity.  With ES reaching 6053 overnight, this rally is either due a pullback or a breakout. In short, it’s another moment of truth for equities. continued for members… … continue reading →