The 10Y broke back into the channel it broke out of several weeks ago, primarily on the enthusiasm around the treasury secretary designate – a hedge fund manager – will keep the plates spinning for another 4 years. Whether or not he will is another matter. But, for now, the algos believe it and the … continue reading →
Category Archives: Charts I’m Watching
Despite plenty of bombshell news, ES has spent an entire week wedged in between its 10- and 20-day moving averages. With the USD spiking higher and VIX getting the bounce we anticipated, can it break back above its IH&S target? continued for members… … continue reading →
At 213K, initial claims came in slightly below both the prior print and expectations. Futures rose slightly on the news, adding to their overnight meltup. But, the more important print seems to be that of NVDA, which has again pushed above its Jun 2024 highs. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up slightly following yesterday’s selloff algofest which celebrated increased risk of nuclear weapons being used in Europe. continued for members… … continue reading →
After Ukraine fired a longer-range ATACMS missile into Russia for the first time, Russia amended its nuclear doctrine to consider aggression from a non-nuclear state with the participation of a nuclear country to be a joint attack on Russia. The futures market quickly sold off by about 1% before algos kicked in to limit the … continue reading →
Futures are up very slightly after a week that saw prices begin to slump right on cue. Unfortunately for bulls, the slump is not over. continued for members… … continue reading →
The past two days of inflation data make it abundantly clear that inflation’s slump is slumping. But, don’t take our word for it. Just ask the bond market, where the 10Y has soared from 3.6% to 4.5% in less than two months. Headline CPI, which had dipped as low as 2.44% in September, jumped to … continue reading →
Headline CPI rose 0.2% for the fourth straight month in October. Year-over-year, however, it increased by 2.6% versus 2.4% in September. This was in line our with expectations and increases the odds of the pause we’ve forecast for December’s meeting. Core CPI’s 3.3% increase (0.3% MoM) further reinforced the market’s concern regarding the inflationary effects … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly on the eve of another important CPI print. continued for members… … continue reading →
SPX reached our 6009 target (from August) two days ahead of schedule, leaving ES 6064 as the last remaining upside target in the vicinity. With ES reaching 6053 overnight, this rally is either due a pullback or a breakout. In short, it’s another moment of truth for equities. continued for members… … continue reading →