With this morning’s push, I’m abandoning my shorts at 1395, with the plan of re-establishing them at 1404. But, I’m not excited about going long at this level. So, I’ll return to cash and await a sell signal, ideally at 1400-1404.
UPDATE: 9:50 AM
Just tagged the neckline from the last H&S pattern (solid yellow) which I think will provide some overhead resistance. I’m trying another short here at 1399, with a stop at 1406.
Here’s a better look.
And, the same chart closer up.
There is still a lot of ambiguity in the charts. Much of it stems from the sloppy channel formation on the upside. This sort of thing can happen with low-volume rallies that are manufactured on an unstable foundation.
I’ll strip away some of the clutter to better show what I mean. The chart below shows two distinctly viable channels.
Impressive ramp on the better-than-expected NFP numbers, but there’s still the matter of strong overhead resistance — reinforced by a RSI chart that looks rather daunting. We’re back in the very dangerous territory of two days ago.
If we can push through, the land of milk and honey lies ahead. Otherwise, things could get very ugly, very fast.
This is not the fix the market was hoping for. This is not a fix at all. This is Draghi encouraging fellow central bankers to step up to the plate, and telling the world that he still hasn’t managed to persuade a majority of them to do so.
“In order to create the fundamental conditions for such risk premia to disappear, policy makers in the eruo area need to push ahead with fiscal consolidation structural reform and European institution-building with great determination As implementation takes time and financial markets often only adjust once success becomes clearly visible, governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist – with strict and effective conditionality in line with the established guidelines.
The adherence of governments to their commitments and the fulfillment by the EFSF/ESM of their role are necessary conditions. The Governing Council, within its mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term and in observance of its independence in determining monetary policy, may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective. In this context, the concerns of private investors about seniority will be addressed. Furthermore, the Governing Council may consider undertaking further non-standard monetary policy measure according to what is required to repair monetary policy transmission. Over the coming weeks we will design the appropriate modalities for such policy measures.”
This could get ugly. We remain short since 1387, and very happily so at the moment.
More in a few.
UPDATE: 9:40 AM
Playing the expected bounce here with some longs at the channel midline/Fib .618 @ 1362. I suspect the trend is still down, but there should be at least a few points to scalp intra-day.
More in a few.
UPDATE: 10:00 AM
Daily RSI has reached a level of strong support. It must decide whether it’s following the purple channels up or the less steeply sloped yellow channels up. It’s also testing TL # 4.
I suspect SPX is going back to test the TL it just broke down from. The 5 and 15-min RSI look like they’re also heading for a target in the 1371 range. I’ll consider going short again if we get there.
UPDATE: 10:30 AM
RSI just about quite there on 5-min chart, will wait to see if there’s a reaction before closing longs.
UPDATE: 10:33 AM
That looks like the full move. Will resume shorts here at 1373 with a stop at 1375. There appears to be a channel setting up on the 5-min chart that coincides with the RSI channel tag on the upper bound.
Note how each of the previous RSI TL breaks has led to a drop.
Here’s a little clearer picture of what I’m watching. BTW, the high of just a few minutes ago of 1373.80 is a .618 retracement of drop from yesterday’s last significant high of 1381.58 to this morning’s low of 1361.26.
UPDATE: 11:30 AM
If SPX can break 1361, it should have plenty of downside to cover. There’s a little channel of sorts on the chart below that might be providing some support here. And, of course, the bulls are anxious to portray an arrest of this morning’s plunge — along with a higher low to boot.
UPDATE: 12:00 PM
Still holding short from 1373 as sell-off continues. There is the possibility of a little falling wedge setting up on the 5-min RSI, though it could also broaden into a continuation of the little channel to the downside.
A break out of the little RSI channel and I’ll likely switch sides again intra-day for another bounce. I’ll also look to see if SPX can retake its previous low at 1361.21.
UPDATE: 12:12 PM
If we can’t retake 1361.21, I’ll set my sights on 1353 — the .618 of the 1329 to 1391 run and well within the bounds of today’s declining channel.
The four previous patterns have all played by the harmonic rules fairly well. Referring to the chart below, Pattern A put in a reversal at the .382 – indicating a probably Bat. And, in fact, we got a decent bounce at the .886. before prices dropped another 26 points to retest the previous low. This pattern was the hinkiest, as there were multiple Point X’s that could qualify, but none which presented a better fit to a standard pattern.
Pattern B saw a reversal near the .500 – again indicating a Bat Pattern. But, then we saw another significant bounce at the .618 — indicating a possible Gartley too. As it turned out, the Gartley was the correct call as the decline wrapped up right at the .786.
Pattern C was one of those funky Bats that breaks the rules but works out anyways. The first real reversal we got was the .786, indicating a probably Butterfly Pattern. However, the pattern wrapped up at the .886 for an unorthodox Bat.
Pattern D is the current one of course. The .618 is getting close at 1353.12. I’ll watch for a bounce there, though as the previous patterns have shown there is no guarantee.
The current value of the lower bound I’m using is 1349.
More in a few.
UPDATE: 9:47 AM
Trying to be patient as things unfold. We’ve reached another important TL (yellow #3 below) of support on the daily RSI. This tells me we’re very likely to see at least a bounce at the .618.
Weird factoid of the day? In the face of a 160-pt DJIA decline and a 20-pt SPX delince, VIX is down .05. Go figure.
UPDATE: 1:12 PM
The 5-min RSI is nearing a solid TL of resistance. Should the TL hold (and 1361.21 mentioned above) we should be able to make a final push for 1353.
UPDATE: 1:30 PM
Another way of viewing things — channels in channels. Looks like a little rising wedge setting up at the moment. Only another 10 minutes left before 1361 passes out of reach without breaching the channel. That is, any sideways motion within the little wedge (or a break down) gets us to the far right/upper bound without exceeding 1361 and enable further downside.
UPDATE: 2:20 PM
I’m lowering my mental stop to 1360, the level at which we’d break out of the downward sloping channel. I would be likely to go long again should we break out. The current stasis can’t last, as we’ll hit the channel wall within the next 10 minutes at this pace.
Note that we’re hanging just below the RSI trend line, and just above the price channel line (the smallest one, which was previously a rising wedge.) The most likely outcome is a breakdown of the channel and return to the lower bound of the RSI triangle to set up additional positive divergence.
UPDATE: 3:05 PM
Just broke out of the channel, but not by much yet. This has the feel of a back-alley job. So, though I’m now long at 1360, I’ll be watching carefully for any signs of a turn — likely using 1360 as a stop.
UPDATE: 3:50 PM
We’re coming up on a channel midline, the .382 of the rebound and the intersection of what looks like a good new channel with a TL — all in the 1365-1368 range. Would make a nice place for a turn.
I’ll probably cash out for the day and try to figure out the next stage. NFP in the morning, and that might make a difference.
UPDATE: EOD
If I’m not mistaken, we made 54 points today. I missed a few by not pulling the trigger at 1354 (in pursuit of a 1353 target) but I can live with that. To me, the hardest thing about investing has always been letting profits run; but, we got all but 6 of the drop since going short Monday — and made a bunch more through intra-day trading.
Thanks, everyone, for the nice notes during the day. And, welcome to today’s new members. It’s not always this hectic! We often go days at a time without trading, let alone multiple position changes during the day. I certainly hadn’t planned on it; it’s what the market threw our direction.
A few of you report that the SAVE37 coupon (annual membership for $500) is still working. There’s some kind of hitch over at PayPal, so if you can get it to work, go for it. Annual memberships will be $800 as soon as PayPal gets it together.
I’ll post more tonight after I’ve had a chance to catch my breath.
The 6-pt ramp we’ve seen overnight has left the eminis right at a point of resistance with respect to two .786 Fibonacci levels, a trend/channel line off the Mar 27 and May 1 highs, and an RSI trend line.
UPDATE: 10 AM
The overnight ramp fizzled almost from the opening bell. On a basketball court, someone would have yelled “get that weak $#@% out of here!”
Nothing has changed since yesterday afternoon. This morning’s better than expected ADP survey was appropriately greeted with a yawn. ADP has consistently been at odds with the Fed’s NFP data — to the point where someone finally graphed what we all know.
There is still just as good an upside case as downside, depending on whether the Fed decides to make the market’s day or not. My best guess is still “not” but I have no inside info or special powers of discernment. I continue to believe that they’ll whip out the QE when they have to, and not a minute sooner.
At <1300, with the market about to break some key technical levels and the euro going down the tubes, it was a different story. 120 points later and “positive” housing, employment, PMI data to chew on, it’s just not worth it — especially when you consider that it’s their last, best tool to goose the markets.
If the market should react very badly to today’s news, it again opens the door. Here’s a few charts to chew on:
SPX might be tracing out either a flag or pennant pattern on the 15-min chart. While either could portend higher prices (2/3 of the time), a flag would mean lower prices first — probably down into the mid 1370s.
At first blush, the market seems to be respecting the last high of 1380.39 on July 19. I suppose it makes for a more positive wave structure.
But, I suspect the bigger worry for bulls is the Fib .786 at 1381.50 (in yellow). This retracement from the 1576 to 666 plunge (Oct 2007 – Mar 2009) was only recently exceeded again, and a real, live bull market shouldn’t have any difficulty retaking and defending it. Here’s the big picture, again:
We’ve been blessed with a real trader’s market the past few months. Had we simply held our April 2 shorts (at 1422), then covered and gone long on May 23 (at 1298, I was early), we’d be up a respectable 215 points (15%) as of Friday’s close.
There’s certainly nothing wrong with a 15% return in 4 months. It beats the heck out of a buy and hold strategy which would have left us down 33 points (-0.49%)
By paying attention to harmonics and chart patterns, however, we registered 685points over the same period for a 49.25% return.
Looking back, our forecast was eerily accurate. Here’s the chart I posted on June 11, a slightly revised version of a June 1 forecast [see: Mixed Signals.]
The forecast line is the solid purple line rising diagonally across the chart in the middle of the red channel. I was expecting a quick decline from 1335 to 1308, then a rise by July 25 to 1389. I punted on the likely wave shape, drawing a straight line down the channel midline from June 22 on.
We got the decline the next day (to 1307)… and followed that with a rise to 1389 by July 27 — only two days later than expected. Here is the exact same forecast, superimposed on the actual market results.
I’m not aware of anyone who correctly anticipated the wave moves. I’m glad I didn’t embarrass myself by taking a wild guess. But, the channel worked very well — until the July 12 dip necessitated a slightly tamer slope.
Earlier today, a friend described his attempts to capitalize on the rise since early June using options. He had the right direction, the right target and nearly the right timing. Yet, profits had been anything but automatic.
I attribute the difficulty to the crazy wave structure we’ve seen since June 25. It’s been a tough time to stay ahead of the daily swings. In the past 38 sessions since 1266, only 3 featured daily swings of less than 10 points. Fourteen had daily swings of 19 points or greater.
Because we have so many new members over the past week, I’d like to suggest you check out the post: How to Use Pebblewriter. It’s a good general overview of how my process works. And, if Butterfly, Bat, Crab and Gartley Patterns sound like gibberish, check out the pages under Harmonics in the Learn tab on the main page. I will try to update the How to Use Pebblewriter page over the weekend.
There are still a handful of the 37 2nd quarter discounts available. These are annual memberships for $500, a 37% discount (in celebration of our 37% 2nd quarter results) to the new annual price ($800) which will be in effect tomorrow. Details here.
If you’ve recently signed up for a monthly or quarterly membership, consider upgrading while these are still available.
* * * * * * * *
We just retraced a Fibonacci .786 of the 1380 to 1329 drop from last week. A pull back at 1369.44 to say, 1348 – 1360, would be helpful in establishing a small Butterfly Pattern (in red, below) to go with our larger Bat/Gartley (in purple.)
A Butterfly would work nicely here, as it completes at either the 1.272 (1394) or the 1.618 (1412) extension — both in the vicinity of our other targets. The lower target of 1394 also lines up pretty well with TL 2.
If we don’t pause here, look for a reversal at the .886 at 1374.56 in the construction of a Crab Pattern (also completes at the 1.618, or 1412.)
The RSI shows we have a ways to run before running into serious opposition — so my money is on the .886. The intersection of the white TL (3) and the purple dashed line should be our next hurdle — probably at the .886 or even a previous high.
As always, when the market is ramping strongly, look at the 15 or 30 min charts for how the channels are behaving.
Any deviation from the general uptrend will appear here first. The harmonic levels clue us in as to the potential turning points.
UPDATE: 11:00 AM
The channel holding nicely as we approach the .886 at 1374.56. I expect a little pull back here, but keep an eye on the channel just to be on the safe side.
Some strong rallies barely pause, and it’s always frustrating to watch the market continue to move after you’ve pulled out. An example was the rally between Jun 19 and July 3, which plowed right through all the usual suspects and didn’t even take a breath until the previous high.
But, it had already made a strong reversal just shy of the .500 mark, and was working on a Crab Pattern when the channel and TL #1 applied the brakes.
An alternative to anticipating these turns (intra-day anyway) is to continue raising your stops. Just know that market makers know where your stops are, and love to push the market just enough in each direction to stop out those who aren’t watching before letting the market resume its ramp.
More later.
UPDATE: 11:30
We’re getting a nice reaction off the .886. I’m pulling some longs and will try a few shorts here at 1375 — but will likely go long again immediately if we push through 1376. I view this as a very short-term trade, and it doesn’t affect my view that we’re going higher.
But, again, I’m watching the little channels for signs that it isn’t working or is developing into something more. My target on the downside is the .786 at 1369, but it could go further to the .618 at 1360.
DJIA’s high for the day is 12,999.75. How cute is that? Interestingly, it is bumping up against its channel line on the daily chart. Can’t tell exactly, because there’s a little wiggle room in this chart, but there could be some resistance between 13,000 and 13,015.
Re SPX: Since we already had a 10-point reversal at the .618 of this latest pattern, there is no reason that we must have a reversal here at the .886. Bat and Crab Patterns form around .618 Point B’s all the time, completing at the .886 and .1.618 respectively. But, a reversal at the .886 helps create ambiguity — a hallmark of the recent market action.
More later.
UPDATE: 1:30 PM
DJIA had a nice break out of its channel – very bullish. Even though it’s likely to back test either the channel or at least put in a little reversal at the .786 and the purple channel line, this is positive for equities.
SPX is closing in on its .786 at 1389, which has been the lower end of our target range since early June. Look for a reaction there.
If we’re still going strong, TL 2, the 1.272 of the smaller Crab Pattern and the purple channel are all just above at 1394.
Is it worth going short at these levels? The daily RSI has slightly exceeded #3, and will mostly likely close right on it. A tag of #2 probably means either 1394 or 1404 — depending on how much of a reaction we get at 1389.
I suspect getting back to #1 will mean a new high such as 1433. But, again, it depends on how much of a reaction we get at 1389.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and Wall Street spokesmodel Timothy Geithner are due to meet on the island of Sylt in far northern Germany. It’s somehow appropriate that these two lovebirds will be kanoodling on a remote island of shifting sands as far away from Southern European trouble-makers as possible (without slipping over the border into neighboring Denmark, which has wisely clung to the Krone.)
What pillow talk can we expect? They’ve already scheduled a press conference, which means it’s something good, right? Or at least we’re supposed to perceive whatever they say is positive… like mom and dad explaining how the divorce will be a good thing.
We also have the FOMC meeting coming up next Tuesday and Wednesday. While it’s not inconceivable, this equity rally does make it marginally tougher for them to announce a full-on QE3. At 1389, we’re only 2.3% off the highs of the year and 11.8% off the all-time highs (the Dow, less than 8% off.)
More on this over the weekend…
UPDATE: 2:45 PM
Considering holding long over the weekend? Check out the channel we charted this morning… it’s now more of a rising wedge.
The yellow dashed line is TL #2, one of three channel or trend lines that converge right about now (give or take a day or two) at 1394. It would be unusual for prices to continue to march in tight formation all the way to the apex at 1412.
Rising wedges usually break down at their .618. A price of 1394 today or Monday would represent a .786 retracement in both time and price (of the entire wedge.) The wedge is currently about 8 points from the upper bound to the lower. On Monday, that declines to about 6 points. So, clearly, something’s gotta give.
I’ll stay long until we break down out of the wedge or until we tag 1394, whichever comes first. If neither occurs by the end of the day, I’ll have some tough decisions to make regarding the weekend. If you’re in the same boat, I encourage you to stay with us through the last hour of trading. I’ll post more if anything of consequence occurs.
We’re up over 4% since going long at 1331 on Tuesday, and I’m not crazy about giving it back.
UPDATE: 3:30 PM
Other charts suggesting at least a pause here:
COMP daily
Oops, just tagged 1389.19 — officially reaching the .786 and the bottom of our upside target range since early June. That’s good enough for me. I’m going into cash for the weekend. I know I’m leaving money on the table, but I want to sleep well this weekend.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the market bumps up to 1394 intra-day on Monday just to make the TL tag official. I’ll reassess over the weekend.
BTW, here’s how our rising wedge finished the day. Broke down from the tiny wedge inside the small wedge, and closed right on the small wedge’s lower bound. Gotta love it.
Congratulations to all of our new members. If you went long at 1331 this past Tuesday with at least $11,500, you’ve earned back your annual membership fee in only 3 days!
Our decision to go long again at 1331 is paying some nice dividends, with SPX up over 30 points in the past two days. If we can hang on through tomorrow, we should be up over 50% since inception (March 22.)
A little reminder… a few days ago I announced a 37% discount to the first 37 new annual members in celebration of our 2nd quarter results (up 37%!) If you’re already a monthly/quarterly/semi-annual member, we’ll just tack it on the end of your current membership. If you’re already an annual member, tell a friend and earn 3 free months when they sign up. There are still 11 spots left, so grab ’em while you can. This deal ends tomorrow, when new rates are announced. To sign up, click here.
In my old days on Wall Street, this would be a great time to start indexing. Institutional asset management is all about beating your benchmarks and quartiles, and every manager I know would absolutely sit on a lead like this and ride out the rest of the year essentially owning the S&P 500. But, you all know me better than that, right?
I am an ardent believer in the chart patterns, channels, harmonic patterns and technical analysis that have enabled us to capitalize on rather than fall victim to volatility. It’s hard work, for sure. I start around 5:30 am and often nod off around midnight — still charting.
But, the results are worth the effort. We certainly won’t be on the right side of every move every time; my goal is to get most of them right by sticking to our proven methodology, and avoid being sucked into positions based on hope or fear.
One of our members (known here as Beach Justice) is a professional poker player; he recently offered me the following sage advice:
There’s a saying in poker: “Don’t be results oriented,” which simply means that just because your play didn’t work out and you lost the hand, that doesn’t mean it was wrong, and thus you shouldn’t bitch about it. Profitable situations in poker get annihilated by low-percentage cards all the time, but if the expected value of the play was positive, that’s all that matters and the profit will be there over the long run.
Trading the is the same way, just because a particular forecast doesn’t work out for whatever reason, it doesn’t make the position a bad bet. If I make 10 trades with an estimated 3:1 risk reward and I get stopped out on all 10 of them, as long as the analysis was good that’s fine.
Anyway, as simple as that concept is, I never see traders discuss it and just thought it might be helpful in teaching trading. We’re here to take good gambles (and on pebblewriter.com, learn how to find them) but all a good gamble does is offer an edge, it doesn’t guarantee it will pay off every time.
Perhaps a blog about something like this will reinforce to any readers (or haters if you somehow have them), that it won’t always work out, and there’s nothing wrong with that. So just a suggestion in case that’s helpful.
Thanks, BJ; it’s extremely helpful. Because, I have no interest in sitting on our lead and/or playing it safe. God willing, we’ll keep doing what we’re doing and the results will sort themselves out.
And, thanks to all of you for your emails yesterday. I will strive to make my posts more succinct for those who want the headlines, and still offer excruciating detail for fellow chart rats.
More charts coming shortly.
UPDATE: 3:30 PM
Not much going on since this morning’s ramp. Still long, still looking for higher. Though we tagged the .618 of the most recent dip, so we can expect the usual pull back. Keep an eye on the 15-min channel for signs of anything more than that.
I’ve been scanning various indices to see what, if anything, they might have to say — ideally in harmony, if not in unison.
First, let’s orient ourselves to the longer term channels. The set shown on the first chart above stem from some pretty authoritative fan lines from the 2007 top and 2009 bottom.
So, when we chart the various upside targets based on channels and trend lines, they’re not the least bit arbitrary.
TL 3 is the top fan line off the 2007 top. TL 2 is parallel to another fan line off the top. TL 1 is pretty obvious, and has already been broken anyway. And the purple channel guiding the upside since 1266 is formed by a fan line off the 2009 and another line parallel to it.
The most likely turning points as we continue upward will be the intersection of these fan lines and key Fibonacci levels — such as the .786 at 1389 and the .886 at 1404. Remember, 1404 is also the target level of the inverse H&S pattern from June — indicated in white.
The purple channel itself allows for any of these potential targets, whereas the rising wedge that had been under construction maxed out around 1404. That wedge still resonates with me, because so many wedges, when they break down, go back and tag the original apex price level. Here’s what I mean:
The same thing just happened on DX in a very nice payoff to our call of a top on Tuesday [see: Update on the Dollar.]
It’s happened so many times to me that I actively look for it now, and I find it interesting that a pretty clean RW can be drawn with a 1404 apex.
From current prices, the various upside targets represent only a 2.5 – 3.8% increase for SPX. The other indices are similarly positioned. NYA, for instance, needs only 3.5% to reach its inverse H&S target, or 4.3% to reach its Fib .786 at 8091.
DJIA needs 1.3% to reach its .786 and 2.9% for its IH&S target.
And, RUT is only 6.9% away from its .786 and IH&S target, both of which are at 821.
Bottom line – not much further to go before it’s do or die time. I have to run out for a meeting. I’ll post more later if I can.
Hi, I’m pebblewriter and I’m a chart geek. With that confession out of the way, I have to apologize. While some of my fellow chart geeks would love nothing more than twenty pages on the correlation between stocks and the core temperatures of migratory nematodes, others just want to know where the market’s heading today.
In broker school in the last century, they cautioned us that when someone asks what time it is, they’re probably not asking how a watch works. I will attempt to be more mindful of both audiences going forward and stifle my Faulknerian tendencies.
I went long at yesterday’s bounce off the dashed, red channel line yesterday (1331ish), but with the understanding that a break of the trend line will likely send SPX down to test the big purple rising channel line — currently around 1316. I raised my stops a bit from 1324 to 1329.
I’m cautious about laying out these “rules” as gospel. They’re not. Quite often, when my evil plans aren’t coming together, I’ll search around for some corroborating evidence (well, first I’ll reach for some Oreos, depending on how badly I blew it.) Bottom line, I sometimes change my mind and give the markets a little more breathing room than I originally planned.
Stops are a wonderful thing, but they’re often just a (necessary) substitute for common sense and clarity of thinking. Market makers are very prone to pushing markets around just enough to screw all the investors with stops (in all the logical places) before allowing a more sensible move to develop.
So, if you want to have some context to what’s going on, read more than just the headlines — mine or anyone else’s. Sometimes it helps to know how the watch works. We’ll both sleep better.
There are no shortage of reasons for the market to crash here and now, plunging to below zero and not surfacing again until it pops out in Tian’anmen. But, I see more and more groundwork being laid for QE. Witness this story in last night’s NY Times.
I think we’re fast approaching the “pull out all the stops” stage of the market where careers are at stake in New York, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Paris, Frankfurt, Sydney and Amsterdam — not to mention DC and a few other key capitols.
more in a few…
UPDATE: 2:00 PM
We’re getting a decent bounce here. The key, as always, is where we close.
I was asked below about AAPL. The short answer is yes, I watch it just about every day. No other volatile stock has as much sway in the markets. If the market is able to rally on a day when AAPL is tanking, for instance, it says a lot about the market’s inner strength.
Here’s the heat map TOS produced for NDX at 10am this morning:
I had a feeling we were in for something big last week when AAPL failed to extend the rising wedge (accented in yellow) and break through the latest white channel line off the April highs.And, rarely has AAPL’s RSI chart been clearer. Note the dashed red line running across the top of the latest peak, and the white channel lines that caught the downside this morning.
Like the rest of the market, RUT is exhibiting either a pretty deep retracement in the midst of a triangle wave higher or something more onerous — the early stages of a wave 3. While the jury is still out, I believe the charts favor the former.
RUT finished a Bat Pattern (in red below) yesterday — this on the tail end of another Bat pattern that I posted just the other day.
Yesterday’s low also registers as a .618 retracement of the AD leg of the first Bat pattern (.618 of 729.75 to 820.44.) which is a typical payoff to a Bat pattern completion.
