Fed Watch Wednesday: August 1, 2012

The 6-pt ramp we’ve seen overnight has left the eminis right at a point of resistance with respect to two .786 Fibonacci levels, a trend/channel line off the Mar 27 and May 1 highs, and an RSI trend line.


The overnight ramp fizzled almost from the opening bell.  On a basketball court, someone would have yelled “get that weak $#@% out of here!”

Nothing has changed since yesterday afternoon.  This morning’s better than expected ADP survey was appropriately greeted with a yawn.  ADP has consistently been at odds with the Fed’s NFP data — to the point where someone finally graphed what we all know.

There is still just as good an upside case as downside, depending on whether the Fed decides to make the market’s day or not.  My best guess is still “not” but I have no inside info or special powers of discernment.  I continue to believe that they’ll whip out the QE when they have to, and not a minute sooner.

At <1300, with the market about to break some key technical levels and the euro going down the tubes, it was a different story.  120 points later and “positive” housing, employment, PMI data to chew on, it’s just not worth it — especially when you consider that it’s their last, best tool to goose the markets.

If the market should react very badly to today’s news, it again opens the door.  Here’s a few charts to chew on:



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