UPDATE: 11:30 AM The futures held the 1.618 line of 1167 until about 20 minutes ago, while SPX’s opening sliced through its 1.618 at 1177 like a hot knife through butter. Now at 1164, is the rebound idea dead? EUR and DX are both pushing the bounds of their respective wedges (and Gartley’s). If stocks … continue reading →
Category Archives: Charts I’m Watching
UPDATE: 3:50 PM An updated look at the regression channel since the top… Looks like the midline should provide a good turning point, although a similar spot in 2008 fell quickly to that declining market. Re 2008, next Friday is 2011’s 150th trading day since the May top. This proved to be the ultimate turning … continue reading →
UPDATE: 11:50 AM Watching the falling wedge set up on EUR/USD: The Butterfly I’ve been watching overshot the 1.272 extension, but the decline seems to be running out of steam. We’ll see if the 1.618 extension at 1177 has any better luck. That would also mark the 2.24 extension for the Crab pattern. We’re also … continue reading →
UPDATE: 12:05 PM The market seems to be in full OPEX mode, with every attempt at a breakout — up or down — quickly aborted. At this moment, it’s pushing toward the downside, which is a good reason to revisit the harmonic picture. A bullish Butterfly pattern (in red) that began Nov 1 finishes at … continue reading →
Finally, a nice crack in the market. We’re currently testing the 1215 area I’ve referred to as the line in the sand. A break here greatly helps the bearish case, but I’m remaining cautious until we move decisively through these levels. The chart below shows negative divergence on the 5-minute RSI. Note also a potential … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:15 PM Here’s a little better view of the alternatives I see for the next move. Note the triangle apex is about December 5, which matches the 2011/2008 analog precisely. Note also that the past two OPEX closing prices have been roughly in a straight line with this month’s 1260. Also, 1257.58 is the … continue reading →
UPDATE: 10:00 AM And, this concludes the regime-change rally. Did you catch UniCredit’s $10 billion quarterly loss? The big Italian bank will shake up its investment banking and trading operations…presumably to avoid any future trading losses and investment impairments like it just suffered. It will also go to the capital markets to meet its Basel … continue reading →
UPDATE: 4:20 PM Today’s action fulfilled the small Butterfly pattern’s target, reaching 1266.98 versus our target of 1267.38. This was also the .786 from the recent 1277 high, so we are probably safe in calling this latest move complete. Still, there is at least a 50/50 shot at a higher high over the next two … continue reading →
UPDATE: 2:30 PM Watching all the Green Mountain Coffee news reminds me of a post I made in August… Worth keeping an eye on these things, folks. UPDATE: 1:00 PM Dill just correctly pointed out a potential bullish Butterfly that began with Point X at 1215 the other day. If the bearish Butterfly we’re working … continue reading →
UPDATE: 2:20 PM Continuation H&S; pattern close to completing on NDX. UPDATE: 10:30 AM Guess that worked out okay. I had no idea when I posted — just before falling into bed last night — that the market would nosedive only 90 minutes later. That’s the thing about technical analysis. It works extremely well at … continue reading →