Futures came roaring back into the falling white channel yesterday, revealing what many know but few say out loud: the market is broken. When expectations of a 1% quarterly rise in GDP yield, instead, a 1.4% decline, stocks should decline. Plain and simple. The old “bad news is good news” argument doesn’t work any more … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: April 2022
The dollar index continues its tear, surpassing both its 2017 and 2020 highs this morning. This is consistent with our forecast [see: Apr 11 Update on Currencies] that the Fed would need help from a rising dollar to attack inflation without having to resort to sky-high interest rates that would further accelerate the growth of … continue reading →
Yesterday marked the fourth time in the past two months that SPX tested the same important Fib level. The failure to maintain a trend is becoming…well, a trend. Will SPX keep playing the same old song or is it finally time for this trend to be broken? continued for members… … continue reading →
In our last update [see: Nov 30, 2021 Update on RUT] we noted that RUT had fallen by over 10% and dropped below its 200-day moving average – both bearish developments. Yet, it had bounced repeatedly at a key Fibonacci level, the 1.618 extension at 2177.88. By repeatedly, I mean seven separate times where it … continue reading →
ES closed back in its falling white channel following its midday recovery, keeping our target price and date unchanged. Note: The current forecast page has been updated with targets for SPX, ES, COMP, VIX, USDJPY, EURUSD, DXY, GC, SI, BTC, CL, RB and the 10Y. continued for members… … continue reading →
Almost five months ago, we noted that COMP was nearing an important turning point: our 16,158 target. From Close Enough on Nov 19: COMP is probably no more than a day or two away from a very significant top. We identified two downside targets: 12,813 and 10,122. COMP topped out at 16,212 the very next … continue reading →
ES assiduously followed a well-defined falling channel ever since the top in March – with the exception of last week’s breakout. As we pointed out, that breakout was a head fake. ES not only reentered the channel in Friday’s meltdown, but came very close to breaking down below it in the after-hours. If it can … continue reading →
Stocks were rejected at the 200-day moving average following an aggressively hawkish comment by Fed Chair Powell that a 50 bps rate increase was “on the table” at the Fed’s May 3-4 meeting. The Fed watches charts too, folks, so this was hardly a coincidence. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are keying off the exact same factors as yesterday. USDJPY is creeping higher and VIX is threatening a breakdown. Traders continue to face an array of headfakes and misdirection as ES backtests its 200-DMA yet again. continued for members… … continue reading →
Forget the fundamentals. Between USDJPY’s breakout and VIX’s smackdown (19% over the past two sessions), the bears are getting pummeled by algos. As a result, ES’ falling white channel has been busted – meaning at least a delay in any additional downside. continued for members… … continue reading →