It seems like everyone’s talking about the yield curve. Will it invert? If so, when? Would it imply or even precipitate a recession? How would it affect Fed policy? What would it mean for the stock market? Since our work focuses on forecasting markets, let’s set aside for the moment whether an inversion means a … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: March 2022
It’s fitting that the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence are both coming out on the same day. If you’ve been a homeowner the past few years and have enjoyed the Fed-induced rally, you’re probably feeling fairly confident. If you rent, and have watched rent payments surge along with everything else – again, thanks … continue reading →
Futures are mixed as we cruise into the end of the quarter – with USDJPY’s breakout and VIX’s breakdown neatly offsetting WTI’s selloff.continued for members… … continue reading →
With mortgage rates at a fresh 4-yr high… …and mortgage payments up 31% YoY… …this morning’s pending home sales report (10AM ET) will take on added importance. Consumer sentiment will come out at the same time. Remember, it hasn’t been going all that well of late. Futures ramped overnight but are drifting slightly lower as … continue reading →
February Durable Goods slumped to a 2.2% loss, raising the prospect that stagflation has officially arrived. The overnight ramp is holding for now, but ES continues to teeter on its SMA200. For those closely studying the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Northfield put out an excellent paper yesterday: What Investors with (and without) … continue reading →
If you were keeping score from a charting standpoint, you’d find a lot more bullish indicators than bullish. Moving averages, RSI, etc – many of them signal that the worst is over. But, that pesky 50/200 cross is still hanging out there. And, it would take a lot more than a week-long bounce to negate … continue reading →
This is day #3 with ES pushing up against its 200-DMA, and it might have just hit a snag here at the top of its rising wedge. USDJPY just reached our IH&S target. I’m not convinced it’s ready for a breakout just yet – not with the many additional requirements for its assistance which lie … continue reading →
On March 11 we questioned whether the Death Cross was a valid signal of more downside to come [see: Is the Death Cross Really Deadly?] …it’s possible that it will add to the bearish pressures on stocks. It’s also possible that it will mark a bottom. Since then, the war in Ukraine has intensified, the … continue reading →
Futures are under pressure as we limp into OPEX with a bevy of concerns that call the recent bounce into question. continued for members… … continue reading →
Judging from the market’s reaction yesterday, the Fed should raise rates more often. Obviously, it wasn’t the market’s reaction. It was algos responding to the “bullish” signals thrown at them, all at the same time, and all before Powell had moved past his opening remarks to say anything of substance that wasn’t already known. It’s … continue reading →