How Confident?

It’s fitting that the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence are both coming out on the same day. If you’ve been a homeowner the past few years and have enjoyed the Fed-induced rally, you’re probably feeling fairly confident. If you rent, and have watched rent payments surge along with everything else – again, thanks to the Fed – you’re probably not that confident at all.

Bill Dudley – former President of the NY Fed, vice chairman of the FOMC, and chief economist at Goldman – apparently agrees with me that the only antidote for the Fed’s largesse is a recession. We’ll see if consumer confidence can remain elevated.

Speaking of surging, futures are up about 40 points on the latest rumor of peace talks going well between Ukraine and Russia.

At least as important, VIX has plunged through its 200-DMA. This brings ES to important upside resistance…