Futures are under pressure as we limp into OPEX with a bevy of concerns that call the recent bounce into question.

continued for members…

ES is nudging the top of its falling red channel – an impending breakout or a headfake?

SPX came within 4 points for its previous high, but clearly closed above the falling red channel’s top.VIX, however, has not broken down below the major support – the gray trend line at 24.56ish…

…and its SMA10 is still (marginally) above its SMA20……with a small but promising bounce off its overnight lows.Currencies are mixed, with USDJPY still agitating for higher stock prices…

…but EURUSD reversing sharply after the latest bounce off the .886. I expect it to drop to new lows.

GC and SI still look destined to backtest their SMA200s. And, BTC continues its triangle/flag, going nowhere fast.CL and RB are still anyone’s guess. But, note that RB is closing in on a bearish 10/20 cross.  It hasn’t happened since Nov 2, 2021 when RB corrected 23% and CL corrected 27% over a few weeks.

Another leg lower would normally be bearish for stocks, but if it comes about as the result of the Ukrainian invasion coming to a peaceful resolution it’s hard to imagine the market not rallying.

For now, the 10Yindicates that inflation fears exceed WWIII fears.

Stay tuned.