This is day #3 with ES pushing up against its 200-DMA, and it might have just hit a snag here at the top of its rising wedge.

USDJPY just reached our IH&S target. I’m not convinced it’s ready for a breakout just yet – not with the many additional requirements for its assistance which lie ahead.

continued for members…Note that NKD is finally backtesting the midline it took such a long time to drop below – all without having reached real downside support.

VIX still has downside potential – at least to its SMA200. SPX has also tested its SMA200, and the overnight ramp job by itself wouldn’t result in a breakout on the open – the way you might expect if that was the plan.

Remember, USDJPY’s neckline has been a long time coming, dating back to 1998. This is just the right shoulder.  It’s one thing to break out in the event of an emergency. But, with NKD about 10% off its all-time highs, I don’t think this qualifies. If I’m wrong, then there’s clearly upside to 122.78 and 132.22 (for starters.)

Elsewhere in currencies, EURUSD and DXY still looks like they’re done backtesting. And, GC and SI are still in the process of backtesting their SMA200s…

…while BTC is making a bid to extend its channel/flag pattern.CL and RB are in an interesting place. Normally, their ascent would drive stocks higher. But, with even Jay Powell running around  squawking about inflation, they might have finally reached the point where the algos don’t buy into that particular correlation. If that is the case, then the fact that TNX has reached the top of its rising red channel suddenly looks more ominous. Stay frosty.