February Durable Goods slumped to a 2.2% loss, raising the prospect that stagflation has officially arrived.

The overnight ramp is holding for now, but ES continues to teeter on its SMA200.

For those closely studying the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Northfield put out an excellent paper yesterday: What Investors with (and without) Russian Exposure Need to Know. It can be found on their WEBSITE.

continued for members…The bigger picture is unchanged. VIX is still broken down and SPX and ES still have bullish 10/20 crosses in place, but the death cross is also still in place.

Last night’s ramp was kept alive by USDJPY which, for now at least, is poking its head above the red neckline.

The EURUSD remains frozen in time as if there weren’t a major armed conflict on its doorstep and more rounds of QE on the way. GC and SI are still backtesting. No change in BTC’s trajectory.

CL and RB continue to levitate – but, it’s increasingly being regarded as a negative for stocks. TNX is still due for a reversal – egged on now by the durable goods miss.