In a stunning demonstration of the extent to which algos control the market, ES soared 56.50 points after the World Health Organization declared the Wuhan coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern. While it’s true the press conference felt more like a China tourism promo, the declaration in no way reduced the risk the … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: January 2020
The downside scenario triggered when S&P futures reached our upside target on Jan 22… $ES_F just reached our next upside target.https://t.co/zTy3q8WSBd pic.twitter.com/CoRSemmDOk — pebblewriter (@pebblewriter) January 22, 2020 …is playing out very nicely indeed. Credit VIX, which uncharacteristically didn’t collapse last night……and CL which, having come close to our 51.62 target on Sunday, is taking … continue reading →
Ignore the sales projections and the hype. Keep an eye on the channel top and 2.24 Fib extension at 653. If it reverses here, the nearest support is at the 10-day moving average at 550, with 521 being the nearest strong support and the previous high of 389.61 the next most likely. … continue reading →
Futures are higher this morning on what is expected to be a non-event FOMC announcement and press conference. I suspect attention will again return to currencies, as the US dollar’s surge over the past month, combined with the big drop we had anticipated in oil and gas, will serve to tamp down inflation fears. Of … continue reading →
You can fake a lot of things in the stock market. The bond market, not so much. Eventually, reality catches up with the narrative. If the two are as divergent as they’ve been over the past three months, the reconciliation can be ugly.The euphoric breakout we saw following the sharp reversal on Nov 1 was … continue reading →
We’ve been bearish on oil for quite a while, shorting it at 75.57 on October 3, 2018 after Jamal Khashoggi was dismembered and at each of the 3 subsequent peaks since then: just before the JCPOA breakup, the Abqaiq attack and the Aramco IPO — which should have been a peak, but resulted in a … continue reading →
SPX hit our initial downside target yesterday: a backtest of the 1.618 Fib extension at 3306.51. USDJPY and CL also tagged their initial downside targets and bounced. Combined with VIX being hammered as it neared its SMA100, this was enough to produce a gain on the day which accelerated into the after-hours. Ironically, SPX missed … continue reading →
ES is well on its way to our initial downside target, aided largely by the reversal we have been expecting in oil and gas. EIA inventory data is due out at 11:00 ET this morning, which should confirm what the charts have indicated for months: the YoY price change was inconsistent with the inflation and … continue reading →
About five weeks ago, when ES broke out of the channel it had inhabited since May 1, we noted that there were some very distinct upside targets which suddenly came into play. From Just Two Things on Dec 16:In Fibonacci patterns, upside targets are something to which stocks can aspire. But, they are also potential … continue reading →
Futures are off about 10 points this morning in a rare holiday weekend drop……due primarily to a big drop in oil, which failed to top its plunging SMA10 and, instead, tested its SMA200 for the fifth time in the past six sessions. More importantly, it broke a trend line dating back to Oct 3.Unless it … continue reading →