Futures are off about 10 points this morning in a rare holiday weekend drop……due primarily to a big drop in oil, which failed to top its plunging SMA10 and, instead, tested its SMA200 for the fifth time in the past six sessions.  More importantly, it broke a trend line dating back to Oct 3.Unless it bounces back intraday, stocks will be facing serious headwinds which include USDJPY’s failure to complete the breakout it threatened last week.

continued for members…

Note that RB has tested TL support. USDJPY is pulling back from the red TL, at least so far.

Along with another test for EURUSD… …this has meant another test of overhead resistance for DXY.  A reversal instead of a breakout would contribute to the headwinds.While we’re talking about tests, TNX is testing support yet again. A drop through this TL would be hard on stocks.

The 2s10s is in trouble either way it goes.  The only positive outcome for stocks would be sideways.

VIX is barely above support, so it still has the potential to offset the other factors.

The key support levels for ES and SPX:

UPDATE:  10:00 PM

ES just tested our next upside target: the white 1.618 at 3336.50. USDJPY is acting as if it’s breaking out.  It’d be easier to climb on board if DXY could break above its SMA200.