All Hat, No Cattle

Growing up in Texas, you saw a lot of these guys. They wore clean, polished boots, had the oversized belt buckle. Maybe even a genuine cowboy hat. But, they hauled paddle boards in their duallies and wouldn’t know which end of a bull to milk (not recommended.)

Likewise, Monday’s action had all the appearances of a sharp sell-off, but wound up being a cheap, drugstore imitation. Thank the algos, as usual, for turning a potential rout into a mild-mannered slump — at least for now.

Aside from our analog, an alarming geopolitical outlook, and (don’t laugh) iffy fundamentals, the best argument the bears have going for them is still the technical picture. SPX’s RSI channel makes a great argument for a downturn……though the BoJ clearly has other plans — making new cycle highs and threatening to break out of the falling channel dating back to February. Really, Shinzo? You want four more years of this 屎?

Calling an end to the bounce on Friday made me very uneasy — much more so than calling the top in late July. Days like yesterday, where stocks essentially ignored everything the bears could throw at them, make for sleepless nights.