SPX hit our initial downside target yesterday: a backtest of the 1.618 Fib extension at 3306.51. 
USDJPY and CL also tagged their initial downside targets and bounced. Combined with VIX being hammered as it neared its SMA100, this was enough to produce a gain on the day which accelerated into the after-hours.
Ironically, SPX missed tagging its SMA10, and even came up short of where the SMA10 would be after the close. ES, however, tagged its newly minted SMA10 and has bounced back to within 0.50 of its all-time highs as VIX threatens another index-boosting breakdown.
One might think it’s off to the races again, but oil and gas are signaling continued losses and the yield curve has taken another step in a bearish direction. Stay frosty.
continued for members…
The 2s10s continues to break down.
To complicate things for the bulls, DXY has broken out but reached SMA100 resistance and USDJPY is acting unsure about a breakout.
This leaves stocks very much in limbo going into a weekend – not a great setup for traders. If SPX pops up to new highs, I’d be nervous enough to keep stops tight and consider being on the sidelines over the weekend. My gut tells me we have more rocky times in the week ahead.
ES’ tag on the new SMA10:
But, no new highs just yet.
SPX closed about 11 points below its highs. With futures currently up 9, the opening would fall short of those previous highs and leave the door open for additional losses.
As usual, much will depend on VIX.
I have to be out of the office this morning, but will check back in after the opening.
GLTA.
UPDATE: 3:12 PM
Stocks are getting a nice bounce post VIX’s retreat from overhead resistance and back below the SMA200. The chart indicates it could go a little higher on Monday, but we’ve seen plenty of whiffs over the past few months too.
ES looks unfinished – what with the SMA20 and channel bottom (3266ish) untouched. But the .236 channel line is theoretically better than nothing. 
SPX is coming up on its SMA10, now resistance. This is an important test. 
Unlike ES, SPX tested its channel bottom. 
Also helping stocks – BA, which finally tagged our 310.03 target from months ago. I heard on the radio that the FAA administrator responsible for certifying the Max was on the phone with various airline CEOs today, reassuring them that the Max will be ready to go by June or July.
I wonder if Trump himself requested those calls or just asked Elaine Chao — Secretary of Transportation (which oversees the FAA) and who is married to Mitch McConnell — to handle it for him.
On the oil and gas front, I think we have further still to go – but wouldn’t bet the farm.
Bonds continue to break down, with the 10Y testing Nov 1’s lows at 1.67.
Bottom line, we probably have further to go. Keep a close eye on VIX if it pushes back above the SMA200 at 14.93. If it breaks above the red TL at 16.20, things could get really interesting.
UPDATE: Sunday, 10:00 PM
RB has reached its next downside target and potential bounce spot. CL is reasonably close. If TPTB wish to get SPX back to green in the morning, this is where you’d try for a reversal. Personally, I’d prefer ES 3197 if I were manipulating things, so USDJPY could get in a SMA200 tag as well. More in the morning.
