UPDATE: 12:30PM We’ve popped up above the 1326.41 Gartley target, only to stop right at the 1.272 target (1329.11) of the much larger Butterfly. It’s also a stone’s throw from the .886 (1329.71) of what I presumed was a Gartley pattern. Remember, Gartley’s Point B is at the .618 Fib level — which was 1320.87. … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: January 2012
UPDATE: 7:50 PMCharles Hugh Smith’s Of Two Minds blog is a delight. Recently, I linked to his brilliant Dear USA: Your Account is Overdrawn. Today, he tops himself by providing a sound argument for the incarceration of the most prolific counterfeiter in the world: the Federal Reserve. Read more at: Counterfeit Money, Counterfeit Policy. UPDATE: … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:55 PM We just hit 1311.71 on what looks like an A-B-C corrective wave, very close to the 1312 back test target discussed at 9:40 below (which, upon closer inspection, should top out around 1313.8) We’ve also tagged the 15-min RSI TL, meaning we should turn back soon if this bounce is going … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:10 PM SPX has completed most of a head & shoulder pattern that points to 1288ish. The idealized right shoulder comes in around 1322, although it’s high enough to count as it is. ORIGINAL POST: Another quiet day price-wise, even though there’s been plenty of negative news. Clearly, the bulls aren’t going to give … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:00 PM The H&S; pattern we discussed this morning is “growing” as the decline continues. The new nominal target is 1306, at which point we have more opportunities for it to expand further. If this one plays out and if the next one does set up, it could target somewhere around 1280 – 1288. … continue reading →
UPDATE: 11:35 PM No point in rehashing the Fed news today. Bottom line, they continue to try to influence the markets with promises of QE. Actually unleashing more QE is problematic from a lot of standpoints (political fallout, distorted credit markets, etc.) The bigger problem is that if the Fed whips out their biggest gun … continue reading →
UPDATE: 6:55 PM Not much action during the day, but Apple’s making news after the close. According to unconfirmed reports, Apple is purchasing the other 499 corporations comprising the S&P; 500. Said CEO Tim Cook, “imagine my surprise when I learned there were other stocks out there; this will simplify things for everyone.” In after-hours … continue reading →
UPDATE: 12:15 PM We’re seeing a little weakness on SPX, off 5 after topping out at 1322 earlier. We got within 7 pts of the Crab objective and, depending very much on how you draw it, possibly tagged the Oct 2007 fan line. Those who want to capture most of the move down are already … continue reading →
It was Saturday the 14th — the day after we normally expect the Universe to throw us a curve. My brother-in-law and I were day-hiking Mt. Whitney. It’s a 22-mile scramble from 8,360 up to 14,496 feet and back, not the most relaxing way to spent a day but (normally) a fun challenge. Before long, … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:15 PM VIX slumped another point today, trading near its intraday lows of 18.75. This is the kind of capitulation we want in order to see a top in stocks. The small H&S; pattern we were watching has busted, and the Bat pattern has started looking off. I’ve moved my Point X back to … continue reading →