pebblewriter

Tag: stocks

  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 19, 2023

    Futures are off moderately on light volume…

    … and, surprise!, a rebound in VX futures, but not VIX itself. Oh yeah, Friday is OPEX.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 17, 2023

    VIX came within .01 of its previous lows on Friday……leaving plenty of doubt as to the algos’ next move. Today, we should see some resolution as moving averages start to roll over.

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  • Retail Sales Slip, VIX Warns

    March retail sales came in at -1.0% versus -0.4% expected and -0.2% previous. Core slipped 0.3%.  Early reaction is that the drop wasn’t enough to forestall another rate hike in May.  So far, the futures have taken the news in stride.But, it remains to be seen whether the algos will view the setup as positively.  VIX’s previous bounces off the TL from Jan 2018 have been tough on stocks.

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  • PPI Echoes CPI

    After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it……on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY.

    As we discussed yesterday, 80% of the MoM decline was due to the sharp drop in gasoline prices.

    Also out this morning, credit portfolio managers agree with the Fed’s assessment that the economy is headed for recession. It’s a troubling backdrop as we enter earnings season in the midst of a credit crunch.

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  • Jobless Claims Pile On

    Job cuts rose to 228K (vs 200K expected) last week. It will officially register as a drop, however, as the previous week was revised from 198K to 246K.  When viewed through the prism of new highs in bankruptcies and an earnings implosion… …it’s not too surprising that futures are drifting lower. continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 4, 2023

    After reaching our next upside target, futures have settled into a pause.

    No surprise, as the algo factors are doing the same.

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  • The Chartists at OPEC+

    It was touch and go on Friday as XLE pushed above its 200-day moving average and WTI smacked into its 50-day. Fortunately for oil bulls and inflation enthusiasts, OPEC+ was watching the same charts and took action.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 29, 2023

    Futures are up nicely on a twofer: a not so subtle VIX breakdown… …and a very unsubtle NKD rescue (back above the SMA200 just in time for Q1) courtesy of the BoJ’s USDJPY meddling.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 28, 2023

    Futures are off marginally as the major indices coast into the end of Q1.

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  • On the Bubble

    Our yield curve model sounded the alarm on Friday. But, by the end of the day, it had backed off and cooler heads prevailed.

    It’s important to recognize, however, that it remains on the bubble, with only a few basis points standing between a rally and another leg down. From a fundamental standpoint, there seems little doubt that the odds of a recession are on the rise.

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